Is this stat the key to Penn State Football’s success?

Penn State football is coming off a couple rough seasons, but will one interesting stat get them back to their winning ways?

Penn State football is in the midst of the best recruiting stretch in program history, and that is certainly good news for the future of the program.

While Penn State had talented teams in the past, the next few teams look to be even more talented, at least on paper.

The stat that recruiting services use to rate just how talented a roster is, is blue chip recruit ratio. A blue-chip recruit is a four- or five-star recruit, and the ratio is the percentage they make up in a recruiting class. If a school has ten commits, and six are blue chip recruits, the ratio is 60%. (Note that walk-ons do not count towards this number)

247 Sports recently released the top blue chip recruit ratio teams for the 2022 season, and the Nittany Lions made the list.

As we can see, Penn State is better off than the vast majority of teams, but they’re still not in the elite category. Seven of the top ten schools on this list have made the College Football Playoff in the last three years, with three of them taking home the title.

Penn State will likely never reach 90% like Alabama, but 65-70% seems like the baseline to compete for the College Football Playoff. Obviously, the top four schools on this list are all over 70% and have made multiple playoff appearances. Clemson and Notre Dame are also frequent participants in the playoff but have lower ratios for this upcoming season.

While Penn State football is at 55% for this upcoming year, that number is going to increase in the years that follow.

Penn State’s 2022 recruiting class had a blue-chip ratio of 64%. Currently, the 2023 class’s ratio is 68%. When we combine the two classes, and add the sole 2024 commit, 4-star Cooper Cousins, the ratio is 67%. This number is expected to increase as the Nittany Lions continue to add to the 2023 and 2024 classes.

So, as of right now, the 2024 roster would see a massive influx of talent, as two out of every three players brought in over the last three years would be a 4-star or better.

For comparison, the 2016 roster had a blue-chip ratio of just 31%, making that run look even more impressive. Additionally, the 2019 roster’s ratio was 63% (50/79) and that team went 11-2 with two close road losses, showing the improvements to the roster in just a three-year stretch.

Some will argue that Penn State has had talented teams before and still couldn’t break through to the playoff, and this is true (see 2019). What those people may not understand is that Penn State had incredibly talented starters, backed up by less than great reserves at times.

At schools like Alabama and Ohio State, the 5-stars start, and they’re backed up by younger 5-stars and 4-stars, that has not been the case for Penn State so far. Depth is important, but that depth needs to be talented.

While Penn state football holds a 11-11 record over the past two seasons, factors outside of talent were the issues. Injuries and opt outs being the main reasons, along with a pandemic. By adding more talent to the roster, losing players to injuries and other ways will not hurt as much as it has in the past.

Penn State’s rosters from 2023-25 will be the most talented, in terms of blue-chip ratio, that James Franklin has had while in Happy Valley. While this is exciting and should put more wins on the board, it also puts on more pressure to make the College Football Playoff.

With more talent comes less excuses.