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Stunningly, Penn State has a path to the Big Ten Championship Game

By Evan Smith

Nov 6, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Jahan Dotson (5) runs a fourth quarter touchdown tight end Theo Johnson (84) blocks Maryland Terrapins defensive back Jordan Mosley (18) defends at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 6, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions wide receiver Jahan Dotson (5) runs a fourth quarter touchdown tight end Theo Johnson (84) blocks Maryland Terrapins defensive back Jordan Mosley (18) defends at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /
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Penn State Football snapped a three-game losing streak against Maryland on Saturday, in the process carved out a long shot path to the Big Ten Championship Game

Penn State Football has a chance to overcome a three game losing streak and still play for and win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis.

While Jahan Dotson is still running away from Terrapin defenders and scenarios in the B1G West (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue and Iowa all sit at 4-2), Penn State’s big win opened up one door for them to find themselves in Indianapolis in a month.

Penn State currently sits at 3-3 in the conference, fourth place in the Eastern division behind No. 5 in the nation Ohio State at 6-0, soon to be former No. 3 Michigan State at 5-1 and No. 7 Michigan at 5-1.

Here’s our rooting interests for Penn State to earn the division’s bid in the conference championship game:

Step 1 — win out this one is obvious. Penn State has to beat Michigan (12pm, ABC), go to reeling Michigan State, and close out with a win at Rutgers.

That’s a pretty easy rooting interest, we were going to be rooting for those things anyway.  Penn State would finish with a 6-3 conference record.

Step 2 — Michigan State and Michigan need to beat Ohio State.  Difficult?  Perhaps.  But the Buckeyes have to go to Ann Arbor, and Michigan State is no push over.

These are crucial results for the tiebreaking procedures. Combined with step 1, this ensures OSU finishes with two conference losses and Michigan/Michigan State with two conference losses.  But how do we get them all to 3?

Step 3 — Next week, Purdue must win at Ohio State (3:30 pm), Maryland must win at Michigan State (4:00pm), and Maryland must win at home vs Michigan in two weeks.

Okay, these are the ‘hard to believe ones’.  But hear me out, Purdue has beaten two top-five teams already this year. OSU will be in the top-five next week. And they have a lot to play for potentially to win the B1G West.

We’ll call it ‘possible’.

Could Maryland beat MSU this week?  Maryland isn’t great, as we we saw this weekend, but neither is Purdue and they just smoked Sparty.

We’ll call it ‘kind of possible.’  And then, can Maryland take care of Michigan at home the week after they defeated MSU?  They always say lightning strikes twice, right?  We’ll call that one ‘sure, why not.’

In this scenario, all of Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan would finish with the same conference record of 6-3.  The first tiebreaker is head to head among the four teams:

PSU — lost to OSU, defeated MSU, defeated UM: 2-1

OSU — beat PSU, lost to MSU, lost to UM: 1-2

MSU — beat OSU, beat UM, lost to PSU: 2-1

UM — beat OSU, lost to PSU, lost to MSU: 1-2

The two 2-1 records (PSU and MSU) advance to the next tiebreak, which reverts back to head-to-head.

In this scenario, PSU defeated MSU head-to-head, and therefore with three losses, Penn State earns the most improbable conference championship game berths.

If this does happen, I can’t think of a team PSU would love to smash more than the 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes for a spot in the Rose Bowl.

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