Week 1 is here and Penn State football fans get to see new head coach Matt Campbell and the new squad of Nittany Lions take the field for the first time this season on Saturday. The blue and white will match up against Marshall for their season-opener. This will also be Penn State's designated Stripe Out game of the season.
The Thundering Herd are just the start of this light 2026 schedule the Nittany Lions face. Penn State has Temple and Buffalo to round out its non-conference slate before hitting Big Ten play. Once conference games kickoff, the competition heats up, but some may say it's simmering at most for the Nittany Lions.
How will the 2026 season pan out? What are realistic expectations for Campbell in year one? Is a College Football Playoff appearance in the cards? Is a double-digit win season even likely?
Here is my prediction for the 2026 Penn State football season:
Penn State will go 9-3, but the three losses aren't all of the usual suspects
A 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten) prediction is where most analysts have the Nittany Lions finishing the 2026 season. I can see them also going 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten), but I think Campbell has enough juice in year one to beat at least one of the following: USC, Michigan, and Washington.
That being said, I don't think Campbell will cruise to a double-digit win season. The Trojans, Wolverines, and Huskies might be the toughest opponents on the schedule, but Campbell hasn't faced a Big Ten slate and a good chunk of his team (and starters) hasn't either. It seems almost too perfect for Penn State to beat every team that's starting the 2026 season on a lower tier.
Here's the game-by-game results I have for the Nittany Lions:
- Week 1: Win vs. Marshall
- Week 2: Win at Temple
- Week 3: Win vs. Buffalo
- Week 4: Win vs. Wisconsin
- Week 5: Win at Northwestern
- Week 6: Loss vs. USC
- Week 7: Win at Michigan
- Week 8: Bye
- Week 9: Win vs. Purdue
- Week 10: Loss at Washington
- Week 11: Win vs. Minnesota
- Week 12: Win vs. Rutgers
- Week 13: Loss at Maryland
As big of a statement it would be for Campbell to win his first White Out, I don't see it happening.
Aside from it being the most anticipated themes of the season, everything else is working against Penn State. Head coach Lincoln Riley over at USC will head to Happy Valley coming off games vs. Oregon and Washington. There's a good chance Nittany Lions will likely head into Week 6 undefeated, but without any real tests. The Trojans will have more experience by the time they play at Beaver Stadium whereas it'll be the first real battle for Campbell in the Big Ten. On top of that, Jayden Maiava is probably the toughest quarterback Penn State faces this season.
So, the question is which game will the Nittany Lions win from their 2026 "big three?" I'm going bold on this one and saying Michigan.
A win on the road in Ann Arbor sounds insane, but after losing in Week 6 to USC, I think Campbell can rally that locker room and come out strong in Week 7. Both he and Kyle Whittingham are entering their first seasons as Big Ten head coaches, making the jump from the Big 12. The last time they met was in 2024 when Iowa State beat Utah 31-28. Week 7 is a tough game to win. Aside from which head coach is better adjusted, there are other huge keys to this contest: Which defensive coordinator out-coaches the other, can the Nittany Lions take advantage of the run game, and can Penn State play a full four quarters.
I think Penn State will run into a trap game, and honestly, I won't be too upset about it mainly because I'm expecting it. There are a few contenders for that game as well, including Northwestern and Rutgers, but I went with Maryland.
The Terrapins have head coach Mike Locksley in desperate need of more than a few wins and he's pretty much on his last life. They also have quarterback Malik Washington, who I think is one of the better ones the Nittany Lions face in 2026. Assuming both teams are playing at their best, it might come down to which head coach wants it more — and Locksley might need it more. I think Penn State might run out of gas after facing similarly-matched opponents in Week 11 and 12.
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