Penn State season predictions are coming in and everyone is on the same page

Penn State football fans won't see their Nittany Lions until Sept. 5 when they take on Marshall at home, but the 2026 college football season kicks off this weekend with Week 0 matchups.

With the season on the horizon comes preseason rankings, preseason watch lists, and predictions. All eyes are on new head coach Matt Campbell as he takes on year one at Penn State and an easy schedule with a revamped roster featuring 39 transfers and a handful of former Iowa State Cyclones.

The expectations aren't overflowing by any means, but the situation Campbell inherited for this upcoming season looks very hopeful. A College Football Playoff appearance is still a long-shot considering strength of schedule (or lack thereof in Penn State's case), but there's a lot of potential for a very successful season.

Double-digit winning record isn't off the table, but 9-3 is the realistic finish

Media and analysts have consistently predicted a 9-3 prediction for the Nittany Lions in 2026.

"Campbell has a golden opportunity to make Penn State fans forget the frustrations of the James Franklin era and deliver immediate success in 2026," Brad Crawford of CBS Sports wrote. "Talent, experience and opportunity. Anything short of a playoff push would feel disappointing given the schedule."

Playoff "push" is key here. A 9-3 record with that schedule won't cut it for the committee, but it's still pushing that bubble. That's also a successful record for Campbell in his first season in Happy Valley regardless of what the postseason looks like.

Alongside CBS Sports, SB Nation, College Football Zone, College Football Zone, and the ESPN FPI all agree on the 9-3 record prediction for the Nittany Lions. Anywhere between eight to 10 wins is a good range for this year. Any more than nine wins requires Penn State to beat one of its top three opponents. Aside from a couple potential "trap games" on the schedule, most of these analysts are tallying those three losses against USC, Michigan, and Washington.

Matt Campbell can't go 0-3 vs. USC, Michigan, and Washington

A general consensus being that Campbell will go 0-3 against those three teams isn't good. Yes, a 9-3 record is still something to be proud of and build upon, but Penn State has to prove that it's on its way back to national title contention. Beating Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland doesn't prove that whatsoever.

In order to get on the right track, Campbell has to win at least one of those games. Ideally, the Nittany Lions beat either the Trojans or Wolverines. The Huskies are on the bottom of the totem pole of this trio, though a win over them is still worth celebrating.

Those three teams are all ranked above Penn State in the AP Preseason Poll. They are the only ranked opponents on the schedule. Beating unranked teams isn't enough. The Nittany Lions must finish the season with a win against at least one team from that trio.

Slowly ascending is likely the path Campbell will take, but that requires results. If Campbell can't compete with this mid-level tier in the Big Ten, the concept of the postseason doesn't even exist.

Since there are a couple trap games in Northwestern and Rutgers, a 9-3 record with a win against USC, Michigan, or Washington is still likely. One flop won't define the season (though, rightfully, there won't be positive reactions to it), but no wins vs. Top 25 teams will.

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