Game #2: ^#11 Oregon State at ^#14 Stanford (Nov. 10)

The Skinny:

This game is a showdown of not only two of the top teams in the Pac-12 North Division, but also two evely matched squads..  The winner of this game controls their own destiny in the division.  The loser will be out of the Pac-12 championship hunt.

Also adding intrigue for this game, both teams will be starting “new” quarterbacks.  For Stanford, they are making the switch from Josh Nunes to red shirt freshman Kevin Hogan.  Hogan came in last week for Nunes and looked very good.  Oregon State will be switching from Sean Mannion to Cody Vaz.  Vaz replaced Mannion for the BYU game a few weeks ago while Mannion was recovering from knee surgery.  How each of these quarterbacks responds to getting the starting nod in such a high-profile game will likely determine the winner.

Both teams posses some of the Pac-12’s stingiest defenses.  It would not be a stretch to see this game relatively low scoring as far as Pac-12 games are concerned.

Nov 3, 2012; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Brandin Cooks (7) celebrates with wide receiver Markus Wheaton (2) following a touchdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-US PRESSWIRE

Oregon State Will Win If:

establish a ground attack to go with Cody Vaz’s arm.

Stanford has one of the best rush defenses in the country – and just like Oregon State, neither team has faced the Oregon offense yet.  Even still, the numbers put up by the Cardinal are impressive.  Stanford’s run defense (55.6 ypg), sacks (4.4 per game), and tackles for loss (9.2 per game) all lead the nation.  Stanford is only giving up 1.9 yards per rushing attempt.

However, for Oregon State to be successful, they are going to have to try and get to Stanford’s second level.  Storm Woods, who is questionable for the contest, and Terron Ward have been a nice tandem for head coach Mike Riley.  If they can dent the Cardinal defense, the Vaz can show off his strong arm.

Look for the Beavers to try and control the tempo of the game, and play fast.  The Beavers like to spread the field as much as possible and try to get the ball in the hands of their speedy wideouts Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks.

If the Stanford defense has a weakness it would be their pass defense.  The Cardinal ranks near the bottom third in pass yards allowed and pas yards allowed per game.  Oregon State must exploit that area of the game if they are to win at Stanford.  In order to advantage of the mismatch they have in the secondary, they need to generate a running game to keep the versatile and athletic Cardinal linebackers from dropping into coverage on obvious pass downs and distances.

Oregon State has the advantage with their speed and athleticism, but the Cardinal hold a distinct advantage in the battle of the lines.  The defensive line for Stanford is not as physical as Stanford which is why it is imperative that Oregon State works quickly and gets the ball out to the receivers as fast as possible.

Nov 3, 2012; Boulder, CO, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Kevin Hogan (8) looks to pass during the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. The Cardinal defeated the Buffaloes 48-0. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

Stanford Will Win If:

Stepfan Taylor and the Cardinal running game is able to take pressure off of first-time starter Kevin Hogan.

Don’t let last week;s score against Colorado fool you.  Yes, Stanford won the game 48-0, but starting quarterback Josh Nunes was ineffective for his only 2 series of the game.  Insert redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan watch him go off to the tune of 18/23 for 184 yards and 2 TDs.

Neither quarterback is the reincarnation of Andrew Luck, but Hogan did show a nice spark coming off the bench to move the Cardinal offense.  He also showed enough to have head coach David Shaw name him as the starter for this all-important game against Oregon State.  One must be careful though in swallowing hook, line, and sinker the performance of Hogan.  Why?  Because he wracked up those yards against the nations worst defense.

To be honest, Stanford needs a quarterback that can make the safe, easy throws and hand the ball of to their bell cow, Stepfan Taylor.  The types of safe passes would include throws to his tight ends Levine Toilolo and Zach Ertz.  Possibly some throws to wideout Ty Montgomery could also be in the offing, but don’t look for Hogan to be asked to win the game on the strength of his arm alone.

Stanford running back Stepfan Taylor is 53 yards shy of posting another 1,000 yard rushing season.  If he is able to attain that feat he will become the first Stanford rusher to ever accomplish three 1,000 yard rushing seasons in his Cardinal career.  Not bad considering all of the offensive weapons that have been a part of the Cardinal program while Taylor has been enrolled.  However, some new wrinkles could be added to the Stanford offense due to the dual threat capabilities of Hogan.

While Stanford’s defense has been stout, so has Oregon State’s.  Don’t expect Stanford to move the ball at will, but rather use a more controlled, time possession approach.  Since this is Hogan’s first start, look for Pep Hamilton, Stanford’s OC, to keep things simple.  I would think Stanford will keep things rather vanilla with their play-calling and sparingly take chances.  Playing too fast could cause Hogan to make mistakes.  Mistakes that Oregon State may need to defeat Stanford.

Game Intangibles:

With the game being played in Palo Alto, the raucous home crowd for the Cardinal should be able to provide them an emotional lift.  Stanford leads the all-time series with a record of 50-26-3 and Stanford has won the previous two contests, including a 38-13 win in Corvallis last year, and three of the last four meetings.

Oregon State has won 3 of its last 4 road games.  All three wins came on natural grass – at BYU, Arizona, and UCLA – which is also the playing surface of Stanford Stadium.  The lone loss came on the synthetic turf at Washington, which is also the site of Stanford’s only Pac-12 defeat this season.

Both teams have yet to face division leader Oregon, Stanford gets their shot next week and Oregon State will face the Ducks in two weeks.  The winner of Saturday’s contest, assuming they don’t slip in other games, will face Oregon with a trip to the Pac-12 title game on the line.  More importantly though, a loss at Oregon does not automatically eliminate the winner of Saturday’s game.  If Oregon were to win out and go to the BCS title game, the Pac-12 would be able to select the team they would like to represent it in the Rose Bowl, and the winner of this contest would certainly become more appealing.

Prediction:

Stanford, playing at home in Palo Alto, will just be too much for Oregon State to handle.  Of the two “new” starting quarterbacks, I actually think Oregon State’s Cody Vaz will outplay Stanford’s Kevin Hogan.  But, what Vaz doesn’t have is a running back the likes of Stanford’s Stepfan Taylor.  Taylor is a one-man wrecking crew.  Most teams attempt to take away the running space for Taylor and yet he still gets it done.  He is 1 of 4 players in the Pac-12 averaging over 100 yards per game.

Oregon State also has a premier running back in Storm Woods.  He is the leading rusher among Pac-12 freshman.  He was injured against Washington and missed last week’s game against Arizona State.  His status for Saturday’s game is listed as questionable.  Without Woods carrying the load, Oregon State turned to sophomore Terron Ward.  Ward gouged the Sun Devils defense for 146 yards on 19 carries and 1 score.

Both defenses rank in the top 1/3 rd of total defense in the Pac-12 with Stanford rated number one in total yards allowed per game.  As a team Oregon State has allowed the fewest total yards while Stanford is second.  Stanford and Oregon State rank in 1-2, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game in the Pac-12, and they both are in the top-20 nationally in the same category.  They are the only two teams in the Pac-12 that are not allowing at least 20 points per game.  This game is not likely to turn into a shootout, but in the end, I like the hometown Cardinal to pullout a thrilling victory.

The Score:

Oregon State (+4.5) – 20

Stanford – 24