Game #3:  Penn State at ^#16 Nebraska (Nov. 10)

The Skinny:

Two of the most storied programs in all of college football will meet once again this Saturday in Lincoln, Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers are looking to remain at the top of the Legend’s Division and move one step closer to the Rose Bowl while Penn State is looking to cap off an undefeated road conference schedule for only the 3rd time since the team joined the Big Ten (’94, ’09).

In what will likely be the Huskers last real road block to reaching the Big Ten’s title game, the Nittany Lions will bring one of the conference’s top defenses to try and stop the most prolific offense in the league.  Both teams posses outstanding quarterbacks.  Matt McGloin has been able to achieve much of his success through the air while Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez has been able to effectively run as well as throw the ball.

While Penn State doesn’t have a conference title to play for, they have been able to maintain a very steady and high level of play this year.  I have no doubts that first-year head coach Bill O’Brien will have his team ready to play this game, even if they are likely without senior leader and defensive tackle Jordan Hill.  Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini is equally efficient at getting his team ready to play.  A question that remains though is how will the Huskers rebound after their last-second win at Michigan State last week.

November 3, 2012; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Matthew McGloin (11) throws a pass in the 1st half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sandra Dukes-US PRESSWIRE

Penn State Will Win If:

they can establish a balanced offensive game plan and limit Abdullah / Martinez on defense.

Penn State will try and attack the Nebraska defense where they are the weakest, the running game.  Nebraska is one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten in allowed rushing yards and allowed rushing yards per game.  Penn State has been no model of success when it comes to running the ball, ranking near the bottom of the league in rushing yards and yards per game, but they have been better as of late.  Early in the season the Nittany Lions were almost exclusively relying on the run.  However, in Penn State’s last 5 games, they have had a 100-yard rusher in 4 of them.

Head coach Bill O’Brien has stressed a more balanced approach on the offensive side of the ball.  Last week against Purdue, Penn State established the pass which gave them an early lead, and they were also able to enjoy success running the ball on a Purdue team that has almost no team identity.  Coach O’Brien called a very balanced 37 passing plays and 38 running plays.  If Penn State can maintain that type of balanced offense, they have a very good shot of winning the game Saturday afternoon.

On the defensive side of the ball, Penn State will be in another precarious spot trying to stop the dual-threat capabilities of All-Big Ten player Taylor Martinez.  Martinez and running back Ameer Abdullah have accounted for over 55% of Nebraska’s total offense this season.  Penn State has done remarkably well against run-heavy teams, only Ohio State and Navy have found success against the Lions.  If Penn State is to win the game, the will need their core of other-worldly linebackers, Michael Mauti, Gerald Hodges, Glen Carson, and Mike Hull, to once again fill gaps and make tackles at the point of attack.

For Penn State defensively, this game should feel like a carbon copy of the game against Ohio State, the only difference being the quarterback play, especially when it comes to throwing the ball, should be better for Nebraska.  Take nothing away from Braxton Miller and Ohio State, but Taylor Martinez is a more accurate passer and can exploit opposing defenses better.  Penn State will need to make sure that Martinez is accounted for each and every snap.

Abdullah is another all-purpose tailback in the seemingly endless stable of runners at Nebraska.  Abdullah was a nice substitute for Rex Burkhead last year, but now that Burkhead has missed a significant portion of the season with injuries, Abdullah has become the main back for head coach Bo Pelini.  Abdullah ranks 6th in the Big Ten in rushing yards and 7th in yards per game at just under 100 yards.  Abdullah has scored 8 TDs and is tied for 8th in the Big Ten with his teammate, Taylor Martinez.  No matter how you slice it, for Penn state to be successful on Saturday, they must limit the big plays from Martinez and Abdullah.

November 3, 2012; East Lansing, MI, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Taylor Martinez (3) runs the ball during 2nd half at Spartan Stadium against the Michigan State Spartans. Nebraska won 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-US PRESSWIRE

Nebraska Will Win If:

they can grind it out on the ground and take away Matt McGloin’s time in the pocket.

Nebraska has always been known as a hotbed for athletic and shifty running backs.  Rex Burkhead and Ameer Abdullah are no exception.  Unfortunately for Burkhead, he has been beset with injuries that have forced him to miss much if the 2012 campaign.  Fortunately for Nebraska fans Abdullah has not skipped a beat.  So far he has rushed for 826 yards and 8 scores.

This week, the exploits of Abdullah and Martinez will be tested against one of the Big Ten’s best team defenses and one of the best run defense in the league as well.  For Nebraska to come away with the win Saturday, they need to follow the model set up for them by Ohio State.  Continue to pound the edges of the Nittany Lions defensive front.  Eventually they’ll hit it big for a large gain.  The main difference between the running success that Ohio State enjoyed over Penn State compared to the style offered by Nebraska is Ohio State would run the ball in between the tackles whereas Nebraska likes to get the ball out on the edges.

Penn State is likely to be without one of its defensive and team leaders in DT Jordan Hill for this contest.  Senior James Terry will take his place on the Nittany Lions defensive line.  Look for Nebraska to test him out early and often.

For the Huskers on defense, look for them to put a lot of pressure on Penn State quarterback Matt McGloin.  Nebraska leads the Big Ten in sacks with 24 (Note: Penn State is second with 23).  No matter how much McGloin has improved, his decision-making skills suffer when he is put under pressure.  Look for Nebraska to bring pressure not only from their front four, anchored by All-Big Ten candidate Eric Martin and DTs Baker Steinkuhler and Thad Randle, but also with their linebackers, Sean Fisher, Will Compton, and David Santos.  If these Huskers are able to consistently get to Lions quarterback, it could be a very long day for Penn State.

Game Intangibles:

Believe it or not, the weather could play a major factor in this game…and not in the fashion you may be thinking!  The temperature in Lincoln for the game is expected to be near 70 oF with winds near 25 mph.  The temperature could affect each team with cramps a real possibility.  That places a greater emphasis on the running game.  The team that can successfully run the ball will keep their defense fresher and less likely to wear down in the later stages of the game.

The 25 mph wind gusts could affect each team’s kicking game.  Nebraska’s Brett Maher has been better as the punter and placekicker than Penn State’s punter Alex Butterworth and kicker Sam Ficken, but all have had their moments where they have been good and have struggled.  If the wind is especially gusty, it may force Nebraska to go for it on fourth down more often than they normally would.  This is a situation that does not affect Penn State nearly as much.  Penn State is second in the nation in fourth down attempts.

Something else to watch is the turnover battle.  Nebraska has given the ball away a Big Ten worst 23 times, while Penn State has only given the ball away 8 times.  The Huskers have given the ball away at least 2 times in every game since the opening week, yet they are 4-2 in games where they lose the turnover battle.  At some point, that is going to catch up with Nebraska.  Could this be the week, that Nebraska loses the turnover battle AND loses the game?

Prediction:

The Nittany Lions would like to end the road portion of their conference schedule unbeaten, but they will be playing the most difficult road game to date.  The Cornhuskers have a lot to play for, and they should be psyched to to come out strong for this one.

Penn State has been playing very well of late, and their offense has shown more life under new head coach Bill O’Brien than they have in many years under former head coach Joe Paterno.  Matt McGloin has become one of the Big Ten;s best and most efficient passers.  His number of touchdowns are up while his interceptions are down.

Nebraska also boasts one of the Big Ten’s best passers in Taylor Martinez.  While McGloin is strictly a pocket passer, Martinez is a true dual-threat quarterback.  He can beat you with his arms and his legs.  Nebraska doesn’t just rely on Martinez, they also have power running backs Ameer Abdullah and Rex Burkhead.  Burkhead has been out much of the year with injuries and he is doubtful for Saturday’s game.  No matter.  Abdullah has filled in admirably, and looks to be the full time starter next year after Burkhead graduates.

On the outside, Nebraska is one of the conferences best defenses against the pass.  They have a strong secondary that will give fits to the Nittany Lions receivers.  The Huskers front seven is also one of the leagues best.  They lead the conference in sacks with 23.  If the Huskers can follow the blueprint that Ohio State drew up against Penn State two weeks ago, that is get pressure with the front four, then activate the linebackers, they could frustrate an immobile Matt McGloin.

For Penn State, they must be able to contain Abdullah and Martinez.  If either or both are able to take over the game with their big play runs, that could speel doom for the Nittany Lions.  Just like against Ohio State when the Lions defense was gassed in the fourth quarter, look for the Huskers to continually provide a dose either Abdullah or Martinez on the round hoping to wear down Penn State.

In the end, look for Nebraska to be able to control the game with their run game.  Just like Ohio State, the Nittany Lion’s defense will begin to wear down in the fourth quarter and the heat.  Martinez should be able to make some plays with his running ability and make just enough plays against a still young but improving Lions secondary.  Matt McGloin will also be able to make some plays, but it will not be enough for Penn State to get the win.

The Score:

Penn State (+8.5) – 23

Nebraska – 31

“Extra Points”

These games are played against the spread.  My picks will listed in bold.  Enjoy the games of wek 11 everyone.  As always, I welcome your thoughts and comments, but please keep it clean and civil!

Kansas State (-6.5) at TCU

Oregon (-28.5) at California

Notre Dame (-19) at Boston College

Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn

UL-Lafayette at Florida (-27)

Mississippi State (+15.5) at LSU

Arkansas (+14) at South Carolina

Louisville (-1.5) at Syracuse

Baylor (+21.5) at Oklahoma

Maryland (+31.5) at Clemson

Iowa State at Texas (-10)

UCLA at Washington State (+16.5)

Arizona State at USC (-9)

Louisiana Tech (-20) at Texas State

Kansas at Texas Tech (-26)

Army at Rutgers (-17)

Northwestern (+9.5) at Michigan

Wisconsin (-7) at Indiana

West Virginia (+10) at Oklahoma State

Wake Forest (+8) at North Carolina State

Missouri at Tennessee (-3)

Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-2.5)

Air Force at San Diego State (-7.5)

Fresno State at Nevada (+3)

Tulsa (-3.5) at Houston