With the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, it's possible to survive two losses in the SEC, and maybe even the Big Ten, but any more than that and you’re playing with fire.
In Week 11, Georgia suffered loss No. 2, falling to Ole Miss in Oxford 28-10, and now the team that has been a mainstay in the four-team format for much of the last decade could miss out on the Year 1 of the 12-team era. Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs struggled to move the ball, and couldn’t protect Carson Beck, their embattled veteran quarterback who has now thrown 12 interceptions this season and nine across his last four games.
Georgia’s defense is great, but aside from two performances against Clemson and Texas, hasn’t been consistently elite, and Beck doesn’t have nearly enough playmakers to paper over his poor decision-making and lack of accuracy as a thrower. To make matters worse, Tennessee comes to town in Week 12. Aside from an upset loss to Arkansas, the Vols have handled business. Josh Heupel’s team heads into the week as a 9.5-point road underdog, but I’m taking Tennessee straight-up and dropping Georgia completely off my 12-team CFP prediction.
Rank | Team | Bid | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Texas | SEC Champion | 1 |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 2 |
3 | Miami (FL) | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | Colorado | Big 12 Champion | N/R |
5 | Oregon | At-Large | 5 |
6 | Penn State | At-Large | 8 |
7 | Tennessee | At-Large | 9 |
8 | Notre Dame | At-Large | 7 |
9 | Alabama | At-Large | 11 |
10 | Indiana | At-Large | 10 |
11 | Ole Miss | At-Large | N/R |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champion | 12 |
The Dawgs weren’t the only top team to suffer a big loss. Two losses in the ACC is a whole different story than the SEC, and the Miami Hurricanes wasted their margin for error on Georgia Tech in Week 11. Cam Ward ran out of second-half magic and now the ACC is a one-bid league with the Canes and one-loss SMU likely playing for the No. 3 seed in the ACC title game. I’m sticking with Miami as my ACC pick, but once again I made a change in the Big 12.
Let’s admit it, Coach Prime has built a contender in Boulder. Now, the Buffaloes aren’t in the national title race, no team from the Big 12 is, but with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, Colorado is good enough to win its conference. The Buffs control their own destiny to get to the Big 12 title game, likely with BYU waiting after the Cougars survived the Holy War with a game-winning field goal late Saturday night, and despite Jake Retzlaff’s continued heroics out in Provo, I’m taking the team that has arguably the best quarterback and easy the best player in the country.
With so much movement else, the Big Ten held serve. Penn State bounced back, Indiana stayed undefeated, and both will benefit from the losses by teams ahead of them in the CFP rankings. If both teams finish at 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State, that’s certainly good enough to claim a top-12 spot.