Week 10 12-team College Football Playoff prediction

Penn State took its first loss of the season in Week 10 with James Franklin coming up small against Ohio State for the 10th time in 11 tries since he took over the program in 2014. The Nittany Lions had opportunities thanks to Will Howard’s pick-six on the Ohio State quarterback’s first pass attempt of the game and Howard’s fumble through the Penn State end zone for a touchback, and yet, Penn State was still completely outclassed by Ryan Day’s $20 million roster. 

The Nittany Lions aren’t elite, and may never be under James Franklin, but the good news is that with the 12-team College Football Playoff, they don’t have to be, and there aren’t many teams that are. Penn State wasn’t the only CFP contender to take a loss on Saturday. Seven ranked teams went down and five lost to unranked opponents. 

Texas A&M blew its SEC lead with a 44-20 loss on the road at South Carolina, and now no team in that conference is undefeated. Clemson fell to Louisville to essentially eliminate itself from the ACC title race and CFP contention. Iowa State blew its Big 12 lead with a home loss to Texas Tech and Kansas State recused itself with an upset loss to Houston, leaving BYU as the only unbeaten in that conference, and Colorado suddenly in the mix for the conference crown. 

Even with the parity at the top of the SEC, the league will almost certainly get four teams in because the Big 12 and ACC are increasingly looking like one-bid leagues. SMU might be the ACC’s only hope of getting two into the dance. So, with A&M and Clemson falling out of my CFP prediction, it’s time to welcome back Alabama, who I expect to take down LSU in Week 11, and welcome for the first time Indiana. 

At 9-0, Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers are clearly one of the four best teams in the Big Ten. They’ve yet to play any high-level competition, but they aren’t just beating teams, they’re pounding them. In Week 10, Indiana spotted Michigan State 10 points and trailed for the first time this season. Instead of turning into a pumpkin, Cignetti’s boys punched back in East Lansing with 47 unanswered. 

Indiana, like Penn State, will likely finish out the year 11-1 with its only loss to Ohio State. That’s not a perfect resume, but with 12 spots in this thing, it’s good enough to get one of them. 

Boise State has been my Group of 5 representative for a while now, with Ashton Jeanty assembling quite the impressive Heisman Trophy candidacy. For now, the Broncos are still stuck at No. 12, but when the first College Football Playoff Rankings come out on Tuesday night, they're likely to be a top-15 team. If Boise State wins out, beats UNLV again in the Mountain West Championship, and finishes the season with its only loss by three points to Oregon in Eugene, the Broncos could finish as high as eight or nine, and maybe that's better than the Big 12 champs. Boise State claiming a bye and a top-four seed is not off the table.