Way-too-early 2026 NFL Draft quarterback rankings: Drew Allar doesn’t top loaded class

The 2024 NFL Draft saw six quarterbacks be selected in the first 12 picks of the draft, and while that will never be the new normal, NIL earnings allow players to stay at the collegiate level to develop longer, and the transfer portal gives them the opportunity to find the best place for that development. 

The 2025 NFL Draft didn’t deliver on that elite-level talent, and only two quarterbacks were selected in the first round, which means that all the quarterback-needy NFL franchises, many of which passed on Shedeur Sanders, are looking to what could be a loaded 2026 class. To compete for Super Bowls with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson, you need an alien of your own, and next year’s NFL Draft may have a few extraterrestrial talents to choose from. 

Coming out of the 2025 draft, here’s a look at my early quarterback rankings for next year’s NFL crop, and you’ll notice a glaring omission, so I’ll just address it upfront: Arch Manning is not leaving for the NFL after just one season as Texas’s starter. 

The Mannings have slow-played Arch’s entire collegiate career, allowing him to sit behind Quinn Ewers for two years at Texas while he learned under Steve Sarkisian. Yes, Manning impressed during his two starts last season, but they came against Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Why, then, after sitting as a backup and not transferring or making a fuss about a physically compromised Ewers playing down the stretch, would the Manning family suddenly rush Arch into the NFL? The answer is they wouldn’t and they won’t. 

So, Manning is not on this list because, while eligible, he won’t be a part of the 2026 class, and because there simply isn’t enough tape to evaluate him properly. 

Still, even without the man who has been inexplicably topping “way-too-early mock drafts,” the 2026 class has serious potential and 5 quarterbacks who I view as potential first-round selections next spring. Here’s a look at the top of the group and a few players who have the potential to rise throughout the season. 

2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings

While nearly every quarterback to enter the NFL Draft in recent years has been the product of multiple programs and leveraged the transfer portal to their advantage, the 2026 Class should be different. At the top is Garrett Nussmeier, an Ed Orgeron recruit heading into his fifth year with the LSU Tigers as a redshirt senior, and boy, is Brian Kelly lucky to have hung onto him. 

After backing up Jayden Daniels for two seasons, Nussmeier got his chance in 2024 and nearly played himself into the top of the 2025 draft. He has the best arm in the 2026 class, a quick and repeatable motion that allows him to threaten every inch of the defense. While he’s not a runner, he has good feel and footwork in the pocket, and even when he can’t get his feet set, he can still rip it outside the numbers. 

Nussmeier has prototypical size, throws with accuracy and anticipation, and he’s oozing arm talent. Yet, nearly once a game in 2024, he’d make a decision that would leave LSU fans scratching their heads. Sometimes he’d bite off a little more than he could chew as he tests the limits of the rocket launcher attached to his right shoulder, but other times he just wouldn’t see the underneath corner and throw it right into his lap. 

He avoids negative plays with a fantastic 9.8 percent pressure-to-sacks ratio, so if he can clean up the mental mistakes, he’ll be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

For an NFL quarterback, mobility doesn’t necessarily mean utility as a runner. What’s most valuable is sack avoidance. Allar intentionally slimmed down heading into his junior season to improve that aspect of his game, and it worked. The former No. 1 overall QB in the 2022 high school class managed a pressure-to-sack rate of 14.7 percent and was even a useful scrambler, generating 0.47 EPA/rush on 60 carries for 356 yards and six touchdowns. When you layer that element on top of Allar’s skills as a passer, you have a potentially special prospect. 

Over his two years as a starter, Penn State has not supported Allar with quality receivers, but James Franklin did provide him with an upgrade at offensive coordinator, and Andy Kotelnicki aided in Allar’s efficiency. He jumped from under 60 percent completion percentage to 66.5 percent last season and, crucially, was willing to take on more risk when pushing the ball downfield. His arm can access every part of the field, and he has real touch, especially on his deep ball. 

Allar’s accuracy can be streaky, often a product of his long limbs and inconsistent footwork, but it improved throughout his junior year, and when he’s hitting the layups, he doesn’t have to dig himself out of a hole quite as often. Though if he does end up behind the chains, Allar displayed big-time playmaking for the Nittany Lions. 

With his size, Allar may get some Ben Roethlisberger comps throughout next year’s draft process, and while that might be a little rich, it’s not often you find Allar’s combination of size, toughness, and creative playmaking at the quarterback position. If he stays on his current upward trajectory, he’s almost a surefire first-round pick in 2026. 

Nussmeier and Allar are the types of quarterbacks who can compete with the NFL’s extraterrestrial QBs. But if everything hits right, LaNorris Sellers could be one of them. 

At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, the redshirt freshman ran for 674 yards and seven touchdowns on top of his 2,500+ yard passing season for South Carolina. Sellers exploded down the stretch of his first season as the starter, leading the Gamecocks to six straight victories to close the regular season and enters his redshirt sophomore year as one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. With his rocket arm and freakish athleticism, it’s not hard to see why. 

While he’s an elite scrambler and out-of-structure playmaker, sometimes his propensity to hold onto the ball (3.31-second time to throw) gets Sellers into trouble. On dropbacks over 2.5 seconds, which account for 66 percent of his total dropbacks last season, Sellers had a 20 percent pressure-to-sack ratio and 15 turnover-worthy plays per PFF. Yet, when he does stay on schedule, Sellers thrives, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt and completing 74.6 percent of his passes, which is the most among my top five prospects for 2026. 

Sellers needs to improve as a straight drop-back passer, but his rushing ability lowers the bar he needs to clear in that aspect of his game tremendously. The threat of play-action will terrify defenses, and the 11-man run game will keep whichever team drafts Sellers out of third-and-long. His legs will give him time to develop, and if he hits his ceiling, he could be a top 5 quarterback in the NFL. I’m just not sure that’s as likely as Nussmeier or Allar hitting theirs. 

After transferring from Michigan State, Leavitt burst onto the scene as a first-year starter, winning the Big 12 Freshman of the Year and leading the Sun Devils to a conference title and the College Football Playoff. Then, to everybody’s surprise, ASU gave Texas a quarterfinal scare in the Peach Bowl, and while everyone will remember Cam Skattebo’s dominance, Leavitt wasn’t bad in that game either. 

Leavitt is a negative-play mitigator; he doesn’t take sacks, and he doesn’t put the ball in harm's way. While that may sound like he’s a game-manager, he’s far too aggressive on second-reaction plays to bear that unseemly moniker. 

On pressured dropbacks last season, his average depth of target jumped to 15.4 with a time to throw well over four seconds and still managed an adjusted completion percentage over 60. While he won’t have that much time in the NFL, his escapability is a real strength, and his eyes are always downfield. Then, when kept clean, Leavitt got the ball out in 2.41 seconds with 19 touchdowns to three interceptions. He had zero turnover-worthy plays on dropbacks of fewer than 2.5 seconds. 

Beyond just the tangible aspects of his game, Leavitt just has so much heart and is the type of guy you’d want leading your football team. He showed it all season, and he’ll have an even bigger chance with Skattebo in the NFL and a target on Arizona State’s back. 

For many, the former five-star is topping way-too-early 2026 mock drafts, but that’s a bit rich for a player with Klubnik’s relatively modest tools. After struggling mightily in Week 1 against Georgia, Klubnik put up big numbers throughout the rest of the season despite an underwhelming cast of skill players, and may have played one of his best games of his career against Texas in the College Football Playoff. 

However, it’s hard to see the elite upside with Klubnik, and that’s what NFL general managers are all hunting for. The same was said about Bo Nix, and he had a fantastic rookie season, so if Klubnik finds the perfect head coach like Sean Payton was for Nix, his skillset could be maximized, but a system quarterback isn’t what I’m hoping to find in Round 1 of a loaded class. 

The difference, however, is that Nix relied heavily on screens, play-action, and yards after the catch at Oregon and in Denver with an average depth of target under seven in his final season as a Duck. Klubnik just completed 62.6 percent of his passes with an ADOT of 9.4, up from 7.0 in 2023.

You can certainly build an RPO-heavy offense around Klubnik’s deep ball touch, underneath accuracy, and anticipation. But as a pressure-sensitive quarterback without an elite-level arm, there’s a cap on Klubnik’s ceiling. 

Potential risers

Iamaleava was at the center of offseason drama as he transferred away from Tennessee amid an NIL dispute. Now at UCLA, the former five-star will need to take a step forward outside of Josh Heupel’s QB-friendly veer-and-shoot system. Despite impressive arm talent and plus-athleticism, Iamaleava struggled with overthrows on deep balls, and his production fell off a cliff without the use of play-action. 

This time a year ago, Carson Beck was the likely No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft; now he’s at Miami and coming off major elbow surgery. Beck took a step backward without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey and became a turnover machine for Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs, throwing nine of his 12 interceptions over a four-game stretch in SEC play. Beck will need to improve his ball placement to succeed at the next level.