Coming off a loss in its biggest game of the season, Penn State will look to rebound against Washington in Week 11 after being ranked No. 6 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings this season. It’s a White Out at Beaver Stadium as the 7-1 Nittany Lions host the 5-4 Huskies with an 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
Let’s get into the odds for this one and try to pick a winner. Penn State is 7-0 straight up this season when favored and the Nittany Lions are laying nearly two touchdowns on Saturday night.
Washington vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Washington +440
- Penn State -610
Spread
- Washington +13.5 (-105)
- Penn State -13.5 (-115)
Total
- 45.5 (over -115/under -105)
Washington vs. Penn State prediction
With first-year head coach Jedd Fisch’s pro-style offense, veteran quarterback Will Rogers, and future NFL running back Jonah Coleman Washington hasn’t had any problem moving the ball, ranking 35th in the country in total yards per game, and 17th in the country in offensive success rate. However, the Huskies are 111th in red zone scoring percentage and have struggled to finish drives with touchdowns (Penn State is 46th).
Over the last three games, Washington has converted over 90% of its red zone trips into points, however, it could be difficult against Penn State’s defense. Under first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen, the Nittany Lions haven’t been overly effective at stopping teams from moving the ball between the 20s, but they rank 14th in the country in opponent red zone scoring percentage.
Washington will need to convert long drives into touchdowns to pull off the upset in front of a White Out crowd, and that won’t be easy. However, considering Penn State’s red zone woes last week, turning two trips inside the Ohio State five-yard line into zero points, this should be a fairly low-scoring game.
Andy Kotelnicki’s offense has failed to create explosive plays in the run game, and while his wide receivers should get more separation for Drew Allar against Washington than they did against Ohio State, it’s unlikely that they’ll take over the game.
Seven of Washington’s nine games have gone under the total, primarily because of red zone woes, and six of Penn State’s eight have gone under. With a pro-style offense on one side, Kotelnicki’s motion-heavy scheme, and both teams rotating in multiple different quarterbacks for short-yardage packages, the pace should be slow. I’ll predict a low-scoring Penn State win 24-12.