Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 2016. That’s a big reason that James Franklin is no longer the head coach in Happy Valley. Franklin went 1-10 against the Buckeyes across his 11 years leading the Nittany Lions, but without Franklin, a ninth-straight loss for the program could be particularly ugly.
With Terry Smith in place as the interim head coach and redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer replacing the injured Drew Allar, Penn State fell to Iowa 25-24, allowing a two-play 75-yard touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter that put the Hawkeyes ahead at Kinnick Stadium.
That performance, which dropped the Nittany Lions to 3-4 and 0-4 against Big Ten opponents, didn’t inspire much faith in the Vegas oddsmakers, who have heavily favored the No. 1-ranked Buckeyes for their Week 10 matchup in Columbus.
Early odds for Ohio State vs Penn State. pic.twitter.com/yM8tmHjf3r
— The Scarlet and Gray Podcast (@TheSG_Podcast) October 21, 2025
No. 1 Buckeyes a three-score favorite over Penn State
The 17.5-point opening spread is the largest between the two programs since 2021, when Ohio State closed as an 18.5-point favorite over the Nittany Lions. This line still has a week and a half to move in that direction, and may even usurp the 20-point spread in 2019 when Ohio State beat Penn State 28-17.
In the last 10 meetings, of which Ohio State has won nine straight up, Penn State is 6-4 against the spread. The Nittany Lions, though, may have a tough time keeping this one close.
In his first career start, Grunkemeyer threw for just 93 yards and two interceptions. The Penn State offense managed -0.16 EPA/play with a 40 percent success rate and just 4.21 yards per play. Grunkemeyer’s dropbacks netted just 3.46 yards on average against a stout Hawkeyes defense, but the Buckeyes are a whole different story.
Ohio State boasts the No. 1 defense in the country by points per game, and No. 2 by total yards. The Buckeyes have reloaded up front with defensive end Caden Curry emerging as a star pass rusher, while a veteran-laden secondary has confused opposing quarterbacks all season with its ability to disguise and mix coverages from down to down.
For Penn State to cover the 17.5-point spread, the Nittany Lions will likely need to keep the Ohio State offense in check, but that’s no easy task either. With the best wide receiver tandem in the country and a hyper-efficient quarterback, the Buckeyes' passing game ranks fifth in EPA/play and first in success rate.
James Franklin or not, Ohio State is on a different level than Penn State, especially with Allar out for the year. So, while it’s a lopsided opening spread, it could approach three touchdowns by kickoff on November 1.