Updated bracketology projection for Penn State hockey isn't as good as it seems

The Nittany Lions' first round matchup is the only breather they get.
Penn State's Luke Misa (11) vies for a faceoff against Michigan State's Tiernan Shoudy during a Big Ten game inside Beaver Stadium on January 31, 2026, in State College.
Penn State's Luke Misa (11) vies for a faceoff against Michigan State's Tiernan Shoudy during a Big Ten game inside Beaver Stadium on January 31, 2026, in State College. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 6 Penn State men's hockey's postseason is slowly approaching. While it faces the Big Ten Tournament first, it's never too early to look at where it might fall in the NCAA Tournament.

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College Puck NXT curated an updated bracket for the 2025-26 tournament, including teams currently resting on the bubble of the playoffs. The Nittany Lions don't need to worry about earning their spot in the tournament necessarily, but they have another challenge they might need to overcome.

Penn State is currently heading to Worcester, Mass. for regionals. It is placed as the No. 2 seed of this quadrant, facing No. 3 Dartmouth in the first round. While the Big Green is the best first round matchup the Nittany Lions can ask for in this scenario, their next game will be a massive test for the blue and white.

Penn State hockey projected to battle in region with reigning national champion Western Michigan

Western Michigan is the No. 1 seed in the Worcester regional. The Broncos are coming off a national championship run and are the fourth-ranked team in the country, per USCHO Division I Men's Poll that was updated on Feb. 16.

Penn State already proved it struggles against top teams in the country as it fell to both No. 1 Michigan State and No. 2 Michigan in all four contests, including a shootout loss, in the second time it faced those teams in the regular season.

Dartmouth is the 14th-ranked team on the USCHO Poll and also the "easiest" competition the Nittany Lions from thereon out unless an upset ripples throughout the bracket.

Even if the fourth-seeded team in the Worcester regional defeats Western Michigan, Penn State must go head-to-head with Boston College. Despite the Eagles being ranked 12th on the poll, Hockey East is not a conference to underestimate, especially in the tournament. In 2024-25, Boston University was the team to end the Nittany Lions' season in the Frozen Four.

In a scenario where Penn State comes out as the Worcester regional champions and punches its ticket to a second consecutive Frozen Four appearance, it's a long ways to go to becoming the new national title holder.

The Spartans, currently in the Albany, N.Y. regional, are grouped with Bentley, Providence, and Cornell. The Falcons should pose no threat to Michigan State and neither should the Friars or Big Red, whichever team defeats the other in the first round. That means it's a Big Ten rematch in the Frozen Four semifinals.

Maybe third time's a charm for Penn State?

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