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Toronto Maple Leafs have an easy decision for No. 1 overall in 2026 NHL Draft

Penn State head coach Guy Gadowsky thinks Gavin McKenna is a no-brainer No. 1 pick.
Oct 4, 2025; Tempe, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions forward Gavin McKenna (72) shoots and scores a goal against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the third period at Mullett Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
Oct 4, 2025; Tempe, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions forward Gavin McKenna (72) shoots and scores a goal against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the third period at Mullett Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The 2026 NHL Draft is less than a month away and Penn State men's hockey is anticipating night one to send forward Gavin McKenna off to the pros. McKenna joined the Nittany Lions' squad as a 17-year-old true freshman and is projected to be the No. 1 overall pick at 18 years old.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are the first to pick in the draft, and Penn State head coach Guy Gadowsky had a message for them.

"Yes. It is in my mind and that's nothing against any of the other players because it certainly is a deep draft," Gadowsky said when asked if the No. 1 pick was a no-brainer. "It's just that when you get a guy that can just manipulate time and space like [McKenna] can and continue to improve, man, I just can't see passing on that. I just really can't.

"I think he's going to be a super star and he's a super star human too. Everybody who just spends any time with him comes away with just what a high-quality person he is. It's really evident that his values stay exactly the same. He doesn't change . . . he's always respectful and always polite. He's a wonderful guy just to be around . . . So, there's no reason not to take him."

Penn State hockey HC Guy Gadowsky says "there's no reason" for Toronto to pass up on Gavin McKenna

McKenna has been the projected No. 1 pick since before he committed to Penn State. Though it took him the first half of the 2025-26 season to get grounded, he soon proved exactly why he was the top prospect.

The forward finished his first collegiate season with 51 points on 15 goals and 36 assists in 35 regular season contests. He won the Big Ten scoring title (38 points on 11 goals and 27 assists in conference play), set a Nittany Lion single-season record in assists, and set a program record among freshman in points and assists.

His performance led him to becoming a 2026 Hobey Baker Award Top-10 Finalist, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year, a unanimous B1G All-Freshman Team selection, and an All-B1G Second Team selection.

Ahead of the draft, McKenna is nearly a consensus No. 1 selection, potentially going No. 2 in some draft rankings. Forward Ivar Stenberg, defenseman Chase Reid, center Caleb Malhotra, and defenseman Alberts Smits round out the top five in The Athletic's Scott Wheelers' final 100 list.

Though it's a deep class, especially in the top five, Stenberg is the only likely contender to compete with McKenna for that No. 1 spot.

Stenberg played for the Swedish Hockey League in 2025-26. He totaled 33 points on 11 goals and 22 assists. He was also part of the World Juniors Championship team for Sweden, the International Junior U20 Sweden team, Team Sweden for the World Championship, and Team Sweden for the International league. Across these four teams, he put up 41 points on 18 goals and 23 assists.

The margin between the two forwards isn't very large. Both are are 18 years old, 5-foot-11, and Stenberg is just 13 pounds heavier than McKenna at 183 pounds. They both have the ability to create on the ice and are projected to be first line contributors.

McKenna and Stenberg are interchangeable No. 1 overall selections in this class, so the question might honestly come down to whether the Leafs want the left-winger (McKenna) or right-winger (Stenberg).

If looking at positional needs, Toronto's best pick is Stenberg at No. 1. It doesn't need a McKenna to be its top producing left-winger when Matthew Knies is there. What Knies and center Auston Matthews need is a reliable right-winger.

Positional needs aren't the only things that matter, though.

If the Leafs want to bet on the player with the highest upside, though, they'll figure out McKenna's roster fit later.

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