While he’s in a new place, on a new team, and donning new colors, 2026 shouldn’t feel like a drastic change for Rocco Becht. He’s entering his fourth year as a college football starting quarterback, all four coming under Matt Campbell’s tutelage, and he’s doing it with the same play-caller, Taylor Mouser, and his top-five leading receivers from last season at Iowa State.
There are plenty of quarterbacks who stayed at the same school this offseason and don’t have nearly that much familiarity. The biggest change, frankly, from last season might be Becht’s body. After battling nagging injuries to both of his shoulders, one of which required offseason surgery that forced him to miss most of spring, Becht told reporters on Tuesday, ahead of Penn State’s Week 1 matchup with Marshall, that he’s back to 100%.
“I feel like I’m back to my 2024 self,” Becht said. Which is good news because 2024 was inarguably his best season, throwing for 3,505 yards, which slotted him just outside the top 10, with a 25/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, just because he feels that way doesn’t necessarily mean Becht is about to replicate those numbers for the Nittany Lions.
Becht needed more than just healthy shoulders for his prolific 2024 season
This is not to say that Becht will be bad this year. Even after making the jump from the Big 12 to the Big Ten, he’s facing the softest schedule in the league, playing multiple bottom-feeders and avoiding the league’s three primary College Football Playoff contenders: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.
It is to say, however, that he doesn’t have the weapons he had in 2024 and may not have the perpetual green light to push the ball downfield.
Campbell never recruited at an elite level in Ames, but he developed talent as well as anyone in the country. That’s how, in 2024, he had two Day 2 NFL draft picks at wide receiver: Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins and Noel each cleared the 1,000-yard mark that season with over 80 catches and were on the receiving end of 17 of Becht’s 25 passing touchdowns.
Taylor Mouser’s approach won’t call for a high-power passing game
They may have been the best wide receiver duo outside of Ohio State that year and were certainly at the top of the Big 12. That was Mouser’s first year calling plays, and with those pass-catching options, the former tight ends coach leaned into the downfield attack, with a 9.8-yard average depth of target and a 1.5% pass rate over expected.
That latter statistic doesn’t necessarily jump out as a hugely aggressive passing offense; that year it ranked No. 50 in the FBS. However, compared to last season’s -1.2% pass rate over expected (per fourthandshort) and overall 53.5% run rate, Mouser was seemingly cranking up that dial more than he would with a replacement-level receiver corps, similar to the one he had last year and imported to Penn State this season.
Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen are not a bad 1-2, and Koby Howard and Zay Robinson are both encouraging young talents who will feature in the slot. Still, this Penn State offense will live in 12 and 13 personnel, as tight ends are a bigger strength than wide receivers, and will, ideally, run more than it passes.
Becht may still have a great season as a game manager+. He remained an aggressive downfield thrower last year, even if his accuracy and arm strength waned at times. If they're both back to 2024 levels, that aspect should be less volatile.
Becht is fully capable of leading a winning offense in the Big Ten, especially against the favorable schedule Penn State drew. But 3,500 yards? I wouldn’t count on it.
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