It’s a chaotic time in college football, and that extended to the coaching carousel last offseason. Penn State got things moving on from James Franklin six games into the season, but with LSU firing Brian Kelly, Florida ripping off the band-aid with Billy Napier, and Auburn finally allowing Hugh Freeze to pursue his passions on the golf course, the Nittany Lions weren’t the only premier job on the market. Then, well, Michigan.Â
With so many powerhouse programs welcoming new head coaches this offseason, there’s almost bound to be a first-year head coach in the College Football Playoff. During the two-year 12-team era, Curt Cignetti has been the only coach to lead his new program to the CFP in his first year, but maybe he’ll get some company.Â
Florida, LSU, Michigan, and Penn State all have CFP aspirations, but which of those head coaches has the best chance of actually delivering in Year 1?Â
1. Lane Kiffin, LSU
The schedule is tough, especially a three-week stretch in November with Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee. However, the other preseason-ranked opponents on this schedule, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, both in the top 10, look to be overrated after significant losses, particularly everything Kiffin took to Baton Rouge.Â
Then, there’s the roster. Kiffin and defensive coordinator Blake Baker, a holdover from Kelly’s regime, are relying on young talent in the trenches. Everywhere else, though, they’ve paid top dollar for top talent. This is reportedly the most expensive roster in the country, and for all the drama that follows Kiffin throughout his coaching journey, he’s simply one of the best play-callers in the sport.Â
2. Matt Campbell, Penn State
Penn State didn’t quite match LSU’s spending spree, opting to import much of Matt Campbell’s Iowa State roster rather than spending $4 million on Jordan Seaton and $4.5 million on Sam Leavitt. So, the Nittany Lions didn’t vault themselves to the top of the Power 4 heat in terms of talent. However, among the Big Ten and SEC, the Nittany Lions probably have the easiest schedule.Â
There are no tests in non-conference play, starting with Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, and in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions avoid the big three: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. Penn State won’t have a case at 10-2, but if it handles business in the games it's supposed to and goes 2-1 against Michigan, USC, and Washington, it’ll be in the playoff.Â
3. Kyle Whittingham, Michigan
Like in Baton Rouge, the talent level in Ann Arbor is higher than it is in Happy Valley, and the quarterback that the Wolverines pulled away from the Tigers in the 2025 class, Bryce Underwood, is a serious wild card. Michigan should be better than the team that went 9-3 last year with an utterly dysfunctional coaching staff, but with Oklahoma, Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State on the schedule, it may finish even worse than that record.Â
At 9-3, Michigan will have a solid at-large case, depending, of course, on which games account for the nine and which provided the three, but regardless, it won’t be out of CFP consideration. But is Kyle Whittingham really ready to jump up and get one of the four teams that made last year’s playoff on its schedule?Â
4. Jon Sumrall, Florida
Jon Sumrall has been a head coach for four years. He’s led his team, first Troy, then Tulane, to the conference title three times. The dude just wins. And while the jump to the SEC is a big one, it’s not like he’s inheriting a program with talent deficiencies. Billy Napier was one of the best recruiters in the country; he was just a bad coach, and Sumrall kept most of those key pieces in place.Â
There’s an early-season matchup with Ole Miss that will be tricky, but if it can get through that one, Florida has a path to starting 6-0. From there, the Gators ' season will come down to three consecutive games: at Texas on October 17, Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on October 31, and home to Oklahoma on November 7. The Gators could have a case at 9-3, and would be a lock at 10-2, but this team has a 7.5 win total.Â
5. Collin Klein, Kansas State
When considering win totals and CFP projections this time of year, sometimes you fall in love with the team; other times you fall in love with the schedule. With Kansas State, it’s decidedly the latter. There’s a case that the Wildcats take a real step forward on offense with Klein leaving Texas A&M, where he worked wonders with Marcel Reed, to coach Avery Johnson, but the stronger argument for K-State in the CFP is that the Wildcats avoid Texas Tech and BYU, and get Houston at home.Â
It’s unlikely, but Klein could legitimately lead this team to 12-0 in the regular season, and then even if they get shellacked by the Red Raiders in Dallas, it’ll be impossible to keep them out of the CFP field. The problem, however, is that with such a soft schedule, it’ll probably take 12-0, and that’s incredibly difficult to pull off.Â
HM: Billy Napier, James Madison
The CFP has closed the loophole that allowed two Group of Six teams into the field last year, and the ACC seemingly fixed its championship tiebreakers, but there still needs to be one non-Power 4 sacrifice as the 12 seed. It’ll probably come from the rebuilt Pac-12, but maybe JMU can go back-to-back.
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