The coaching staff has changed in Happy Valley, and the roster has turned over, but the expectations remain the same. Even in Matt Campbell's first year at Penn State, Nittany Lions fans expect to see their team in the College Football Playoff.
But is that a possibility? What is a realistic best-case scenario for Campbell’s first season at the helm? If everything breaks right, how far can this team go? And what if everything goes wrong? Where will Penn State end up if the worst-case scenario plays out?
Even with spring football wrapped up, we’re a long way from the regular season. Still, Penn State’s roster is set, and many of the roster battles have already been won, so let’s set the floor and the ceiling for the Nittany Lions in 2026.
Read: Post-spring Penn State depth chart prediction for Matt Campbell's 1st season
Penn State’s best-case scenario: 11-3, Big Ten Title Game loss, 1st-round CFP exit
Penn State enters the 2026 season with the most experienced quarterback in college football and a remarkable amount of offensive continuity for a team that experienced intense roster churn this offseason. Becht will enter the year with his top five pass catchers from last year’s Iowa State roster at his disposal, along with intriguing pieces Campbell was able to retain once he arrived in Happy Valley.
Continuity could lead to a big year for Becht
Offensively, the Nittany Lions should hit the ground running under Campbell’s long-time offensive coordinator, Taylor Mouser. If Becht takes another step forward after spending most of last season injured, they could be in the mix as the best offense in the Big Ten, again, assuming everything breaks right. Defensively, there’s some pretty big upside, too.
If the young EDGEs hit, D’Anton Lynn could have a great defense
While Campbell brought much of his defensive personnel from Ames, his defensive coordinator, Jon Heacock, retired. So, Campbell hired D’Anton Lynn and transitioned from a 3-3-5 defense to Penn State’s traditional four-down front. Changing the defensive structure was a move he had to make to fit his talent, and there are plenty of young players along the defensive line, like Max Granville and Yvon Kemajou, who will benefit.
At the second level, Penn State, as it always has, is stocked with linebacker talent, and the secondary has very few question marks, aside from asking sophomore cornerback Daryus Dixson to play a huge role. With talented transfers like Marcus Neal Jr. and Kooper Ebel, Penn State’s defense should be strong, and it has serious upside.
Neither side of the ball, however, has game-breaking talents. Campbell has long developed a reputation for doing more with less, and while that’s nearly netted him a Big 12 title, you need to do more with more to trade blows with Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. That’s why in a Big Ten Championship Game or a CFP first-round game, the Nittany Lions, even at their best, would be overmatched.
A favorable schedule makes 11 wins a possibility
While there is hope for the offense and the defense, the biggest reason to believe that Penn State’s best-case scenario will play out is the schedule. Penn State has no non-conference tests, and only faces three teams that most prognosticators would currently predict to finish in the top half of the league: USC, Michigan, and Washington.
It’s hard to see Penn State winning all three and going undefeated in the regular season, but that’s likely what it would take to get a good enough first-round CFP draw to notch Campbell’s first CFP win in Year 1.
Penn State’s worst-case scenario: 7-6 with bowl game loss
Matt Campbell is taking a huge bet on his players being able to level up to Big Ten competition. That’s not just former Cyclones, it’s former Texas State center Brock Riker, who has the upper hand to win that job. It’s Utah and Oklahoma State defensive line transfer Dallas Vakalahi and Armstrong Nnodim, and Colorado edge transfer Alexander McPherson. It’s a bevy of Big 12, ACC, and even Group of Six transfers who have talent, but who, in most cases, haven’t been tested in the Big Ten or the SEC.
It’s unlikely that all of those transfers won’t pan out, but if half or even more than struggle through the transition or even flat out bust, Campbell will be in big trouble. Campbell has never recruited with top-level resources before, so he doesn’t have the cupboard stocked with blue-chip talent to lean on if his transfer class underwhelms.
Campbell should be able to handle Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, and Maryland, almost no matter what his roster looks like. The floor at Penn State is simply too high to fall below the eight-win mark for the second-straight season, especially against this favorable a schedule.
Who is QB2?
Penn State’s offensive continuity will carry the Nittany Lions through much of the schedule, assuming Rocco Becht stays healthy. If not, Penn State will be in trouble because Alex Manske, its likely QB2, missed the entire spring recovering from an injury, and there is no depth beyond him. DIII transfer Connor Barry could be in the mix as Becht’s backup, and as good a story as that would be, it’s quite clear he’s not Trinidad Chambliss, who made the jump from DII to the SEC last season.
It’s hard to factor injury into a prediction like this because it’s such a random element, but you can factor in the lack of depth at the quarterback position. So if Becht goes down, another 7-6 season suddenly seems possible.
If the young EDGEs don’t hit, D’Anton Lynn won’t have a great defense
Defensively, even with Lynn’s proven track record, the bottom could fall out on the unit. They should be good against the run, almost no matter what, with so many reliable tacklers at the second level and beef on the inside. With defensive line coach Ikaika Malloe transitioning to bigger interior defensive linemen, though, and betting on Granville and Kemajou to play major roles, there may not be any juice to the Penn State pass rush.
There’s almost no chance that much goes wrong for Penn State after everything went wrong last season, but that’s why it’s a worst-case scenario prediction. The schedule is just so soft, there’s no way this team doesn’t make a bowl.
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