Last season, Penn State opened up Big Ten play in Champaign, Illinois, and left with a 30-13 win over the Fighting Illini. Illinois starting quarterback Luke Altmyer threw four interceptions in the loss, but this season, he’s a different quarterback.
Altmyer has led Bret Bielema’s team to a 4-0 start that has landed the Fighting Illini at No. 19 in the country. Now, after last week’s overtime road win against Nebraska, Illinois is in Happy Valley for a Week 5 matchup against No. 9 Penn State.
With a much more competitive Illinois team for this season’s Big Ten opener, James Franklin has called for “White Out energy” at Beaver Stadium. Let’s check out the odds for this primetime showdown.
Illinois vs. Penn State odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Illinois +720
- Penn State -1205
Spread
- Illinois -17.5 (-110)
- Penn State +17.5 (-110)
Total
- 47.5 (over -115/under -105)
Illinois vs. Penn State prediction
In Penn State’s home opener, defensive coordinator Tom Allen struggled to slow down Bowling Green’s passing attack in the first half. That’s not a great sign for this matchup against Altmyer who has thrown for 862 yards and 10 touchdowns with no interceptions to start the season.
Illinois has struggled to run the ball this season, ranking 99th in rushing success rate, which could put a lot on Altmyer’s shoulders, but so far he’s been up to the task. Penn State’s defense has been elite at stopping the run under Allen, ranking eighth in EPA/play allowed, but that may not help much if it isn’t a part of Bielema’s gameplan to beat them.
In 2023, Penn State was a defense-first team with a struggling offense, that’s not the case anymore. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has unleashed a Drew Allar-led unit that is in the 99th percentile in passing success rate, the 99th percentile in yards per dropback, and 98th percentile in passing explosiveness.
With two high-quality passing offenses and reliable quarterbacks who aren’t turnover-prone, at least not this year in Altmyer’s case, this has the making of a high-scoring game. I’ll predict a 35-24 win for the Nittany Lions.