2024 Week 5 12-team College Football Playoff prediction
By Josh Yourish
Penn State entered the season in the 12-team College Football Playoff picture, with plenty of pressure on James Franklin to take the Nittany Lions there. On Saturday at Beaver Stadium, Penn State passed its first test, though it wasn’t quite as easy as it should have been.
Illinois came into Week 5 undefeated and drove right down the field to score a touchdown on the first possession of the game. Penn State answered quickly, but the two were locked in a stalemate which was aided by the struggles of junior kicker Sander Sahaydak who missed two field goals and forced Franklin to leave his offense on the field instead of attempting another.
Still, with an elite defense and a great rushing attack, the Nittany Lions got to 4-0 with a 21-7 win and are firmly in the mix to make the CFP. Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Oregon and Ohio State rolled through their conference openers and USC bounced back from a loss at Michigan with a 38-21 win over Wisconsin out in LA. Though, that wasn’t enough for the Trojans to climb back into my 12-team CFP prediction for Week 5.
Rank | Team | Bid | Previous Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alabama | SEC Champion | NR |
2 | Ohio State | Big Ten Champion | 2 |
3 | Miami (FL) | ACC Champion | 3 |
4 | Utah | Big 12 Champion | 4 |
5 | Tennessee | At-Large | 6 |
6 | Georgia | At-Large | 1 |
7 | Oregon | At-Large | 7 |
8 | Texas | At-Large | 5 |
9 | Penn State | At-Large | 9 |
10 | Notre Dame | At-Large | 8 |
11 | Clemson | At-Large | 11 |
12 | Boise State | Mountain West Champion | 12 |
The biggest game of the weekend occurred in the SEC, with Alabama beating Georgia 41-34 in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide was out of my CFP predictions completely, but this dramatic win was enough to vault Kalen DeBoer’s team to No. 1 for me and in the AP poll. Georgia’s loss also forced me to reconfigure the rest of the bracket and recalibrate my expectations for the Bulldogs.
Georgia still has matchups with Texas and Ole Miss on the road, which are games I still expect Kirby Smart to find a way to win, but I’m not sure that Georgia will beat Tennessee, even in Athens. The Vols were on a bye after a Week 4 win over Oklahoma, but my confidence continues to grow in Josh Heupel’s team.
The SEC will get four teams into the 12-team CFP, it’s just a matter of which four. Coming into this week I had Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, but Bama’s win wasn’t the only reason that the Rebels were this week’s CFP predictions casualty.
Lane Kiffin’s team fell to Kentucky 20-17 in Week 5, and the Wildcats exposed a huge weakness along Ole Miss’s offensive line. It could be too much for Kiffin and quarterback Jaxson Dart to overcome.
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