Penn State football head coach Matt Campbell has a nearly perfect setup to start his stint in Happy Valley. The 2026 schedule for the Nittany Lions is very gracious due to them not facing reigning national champion Indiana, 2024 national champion Ohio State, and Oregon.
That doesn't mean the entire schedule is a cakewalk.
Since the release of the schedule, including dates and locations for each game, it's been clear which teams will be Campbell's biggest tests. Penn State faces Michigan on the road, USC at home, and Washington on the road in 2026. The Nittany Lions see the Trojans and Wolverines in back-to-back weeks leading up to their bye and meet the Huskies at the start of November.
Based on Phil Steele's projected Big Ten final standings for the season, those three remain Penn State's biggest threats in 2026.
Steele predicted a three-way tie between the Hoosiers, Buckeyes, and Ducks. Thankfully, the blue and white avoid those teams in the regular season at least and can focus their attention on that second tier of conference opponents.
Phil Steele predicts Penn State and Michigan tie for fifth in the Big Ten in 2026
At No. 4, Steele ranked USC. He pointed to head coach Lincoln Riley entering a year where it's potentially "Playoff or Bust" after coming off a 9-4 season in 2025.
Right behind the Trojans, Steele has Michigan and Penn State tied for fifth in the conference. He explained that this season "will mark a turning of the page for the Michigan football program" and the Wolverines have a pathway to make the College Football Playoff.
As for the Nittany Lions' reasoning, it's the same valid explanation. Campbell brought over his gems from Iowa State's roster, including quarterback Rocco Becht and running back Carson Hansen. Familiarity mixed with lower expectations and a light Big Ten schedule is a great situation for year one under Campbell.
Then comes Washington. Steele predicts the Huskies will tie for seventh in the Big Ten come the end of the regular season, leaning on quarterback Demond Williams Jr. returning under center and being a sleeper team in the conference.
The Nittany Lions can come out of this season 10-2 or even 11-1, but those three games will be the decision makers. Knowing that Penn State is competing with programs at relatively the same level this season is the perfect starting point for Campbell. If he can prove himself against this tier of teams, he's one step closer to proving the Nittany Lions can hang with the best once again.
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