Penn State vs. No. 19 USC final odds and prediction for Week 6

Saturday promises to be one of the most anxiety-riddled White Outs in recent memory, if not ever. Last year, the White Out seemed to end the James Franklin era with a high-profile loss to Oregon in Week 5, but this time around, the excitement of a new era under Matt Campbell has been completely zapped by an 0-2 start to Big Ten play and a 34-13 blowout loss to Northwestern in Evanston on Friday. 

Penn State isn’t the only source of the nervous energy that will undoubtedly hang in the air at Beaver Stadium on Saturday night. USC is 5-1, with its lone loss coming two weeks ago to Oregon, and is still very much a player in the Big Ten title race. 

However, the team hasn’t looked anything close to the College Football Playoff contender that Lincoln Riley needs to deliver in LA through its first six games, and a week ago, even the offense was underwhelming in a win over Washington. 

As badly as Penn State, surprisingly the favorite over USC, needs a win to save what looks to be a lost season, USC needs this one even more. Campbell was hired after signing day, following a drawn-out process that left him importing much of his Iowa State roster from 2025. He’s just in Year 1, so while the fanbase is growing restless, the new Nittany Lions head coach may deserve a mulligan. 

Riley has spent more than his share of them in LA. Justified or not, the hot-seat talk has already started, and it will only grow louder if he drops this one. 

USC vs. Penn State odds, spread and total

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Penn State -102
• USC +118

Spread

• Penn State -1.5 (-110)
• USC +1.5 (-110)

Total

• 54.5 (over -110/under -110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

USC can hit a number that Penn State just may not be able to match

There are probably a good number of people looking at the line of this game, a week after Penn State allowed 413 yards to Northwestern, and wondering why the Nittany Lions are possibly favored. It’s a fair question, and it boils down to two things. As bad as Penn State’s defense was last week, USC’s, judging the entire body of work, might be worse. And since joining the Big Ten, Riley’s teams have never done a good job of traveling east. 

After its 42-35 Week 3 win over Rutgers this season, Riley’s USC teams are 3-5 straight up in games played east of the Rocky Mountains and 1-7 against the spread, with four of the outright losses coming as a favorite. That plays in Penn State’s favor and might be the biggest reason to believe in the Nittany Lions. 

However, almost everything else on the field points to USC. Yes, the Trojans have a wretchedly bad run defense, ranking No. 119 in defensive rushing success rate this year, but Penn State just gave up 413 to Northwestern, so let’s call that a stalemate. Both defenses can be run on, but which offense can actually run the ball? Hint: not Penn State’s. 

While the Nittany Lions actually have a higher explosive rushing rate and a lower stuff rate this year, it’s what USC does on every other play that separates the two. The Trojans are No. 33 in rushing success rate at 47.6%, while Penn State is 67th at 44.1%. In the last two weeks, Penn State’s only against Power Conference opponents, it has posted a 32% and a 43% rushing success rate. 

Then there’s the passing game, where USC has a clear edge over Penn State with Jayden Maiava and its deep stable of young, talented pass catchers. True freshmen Trent Mosley and Mark Bowman are both questionable, but even without them, and facing former defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn, there’s probably a number that the USC offense can hit that Penn State simply can’t match, even against this Trojans defense. 

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