Penn State vs. USC in Week 6 was a classic “anxiety bowl,” with both teams feeling as though their season was teetering on the edge of disaster.
Now, after Penn State dropped that one to fall to 3-3 and 0-3 in Big Ten play through six games for the second consecutive season, the anxiety has shifted from turning this season around to whether or not the program is headed in the right direction from athletic director Pat Kraft on down.
Michigan at 3-2 and 0-2 in Big Ten play may be feeling a bit more stress to save the season and regroup to make a push for the College Football Playoff, but those aspirations likely feel a long way off in Ann Arbor after a Week 5 loss to Minnesota before the bye week.
So more than anxiety, the overwhelming feeling permeating this game on Saturday afternoon at Michigan Stadium is disappointment. Not just for the two teams that have underwhelmed with first-year head coaches, but for the Big Ten that was counting on them to bolster a second wave of CFP contenders and even a CBS, which is relying on the helmet more than the players wearing them to draw eyeballs for this nationally-televised game.
That said, for as far short of expectations as Michigan has fallen so far this year, at least in the eyes of the oddsmakers, it’s still a better team than the one coming to town for a Week 7 visit.
Penn State vs. Michigan odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State +215
- Michigan -265
Spread
- Penn State +6.5 (-102)
- Michigan -6.5 (-120)
Total
- 42.5 (over -114/under -106)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michigan is a mess, but a mess with much more talent than Penn State
Michigan wildly underperformed expectations in Week 1, a game the Wolverines should have lost to Western Michigan, and in Week 5, was soundly outplayed by a Minnesota team that went on to get blown out by Purdue a week later. However, Michigan was clearly the better team in its Week 4 loss to Iowa, and at no point this season has Penn State outplayed a Power Conference opponent.
Even Wisconsin had a significant net success rate edge over Penn State in its come-from-behind Week 4 loss.
Michigan is undisciplined, sloppy, and searching for an offensive identity behind a former five-star quarterback who still hasn’t found his footing midway through his sophomore campaign. Penn State just doesn’t have the horses to compete in this conference right now.
Defensively, Penn State’s defensive line, which was built to stop the run, has been pushed around for three straight weeks. Multiple transfers, Kooper Ebel and Jeremiah Cooper most notably, looked outmatched physically by USC’s and even Northwestern’s offensive athletes.
On the other side, except for offensive coordinator Taylor Mouser scheming them open, Penn State’s pass catchers have no hope of creating separation, and on the few reps that they do, Rocco Becth has had a hard time hitting them consistently.
Michigan may not figure itself out this season, but it at least has elite-level talent at multiple positions on its roster. Penn State has Tony Rojas, Audavion Collins, and not much else, at least not while Koby Howard is still injured.
Iowa found a way to hang around long enough for Michigan to give it the game. Maybe Penn State can do the same. But that’s not something you can count on when you’re losing the battle consistently, down-to-down. Michigan is nearly a touchdown favorite, and that says even more with a low total on the game. It’s a favorite for a reason.
Add us as a preferred source on Google