Following Week 6's upset, it's not shocking to see Penn State football fall out of both the AP Top 25 Poll and College Football Playoff predictions (including teams on the bubble).
The Athletic's Austin Mock updated his predictions on Oct. 5. Before plummeting once losing to a winless UCLA team, the Nittany Lions (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) stayed afloat with a first round bye until they lost to Oregon. However, Mock still had them in the Top 10 at No. 6.
Aug. 21 (Preseason): No. 3
Aug. 24 (Before Week 1): No. 3
Sept. 2 (Before Week 2): No. 2
Sept. 7 (Before Week 3): No. 2
Sept. 14 (Before Week 4): No. 4
Sept. 24 (Before Week 5): No. 3
Sept. 29 (Before Week 6): No. 6
After Week 6, there was no justifying keeping Penn State in the mix whatsoever. Potentially even more heartbreaking for the Nittany Lions, The Athletic gave them only an eight percent chance at making the playoffs and less than a one percent chance to win the Big Ten, claim a first round bye, and win the national title.
Penn State's projected record is currently 8-4 according to this model as well. That means it sustains two more losses in 2025, which would likely be a combination of Iowa, Ohio State, or Indiana (Week 8, 10, and 11, respectively).
"Penn State, which entered the year with national championship aspirations, is now doubtful to make the [CFP]," Stewart Mandel wrote. "I’ve always considered Franklin’s job to be perfectly safe, no matter the big-game losses. Not if his most talented team ends up spiraling."
Ralph D. Russo backed that statement regarding the Nittany Lions' playoff future. He wrote that they, alongside Texas, will need to win outright to reach the CFP for a second consecutive season. If both teams win out in the regular season, both teams have a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
All Penn State has to do is beat Northwestern on Saturday, Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers to finish the season 10-2. In the preseason, the Buckeyes were marked as an automatic loss for the Nittany Lions, but Penn State can't afford that anymore. All their playoff hopes rest on a perfect record from hereon out.
Until then, The Athletic will keep the blue and white out of the picture and out of the hunt. Any loss is detrimental to its CFP hopes whereas in the preseason, it could afford to lose against Ohio State or Indiana. It essentially wasted a second loss on UCLA.