Penn State’s crumbling recruiting classes show how important James Franklin was to Happy Valley

The most perplexing question of the final years of James Franklin’s 11-plus-year tenure in Happy Valley was this: Has Penn State reached James Franklin’s ceiling, or has James Franklin reached Penn State’s? 

The Nittany Lions continued to slam their head on a hard ceiling, just short of a Big Ten title and the national championship, always losing to the best teams on the schedule, while beating everyone else. So, was that a limitation of the program, its location, resources, and recruiting base, or the head coach, his recruiting abilities, and game management? 

Well, pretty soon we’re going to find out, but the early returns are pointing to James Franklin being quite a bit more important than many may have suspected. 

Penn State leads the country in decommitments after firing Franklin

Since Franklin’s firing, 19 Penn State recruits have de-committed from the program, the most of any program that fired its head coach this season. More could be coming soon, as five current Penn State commits head to Blacksburg for an official visit as they contemplate joining Franklin at Virginia Tech. 

This is the part where I acknowledge the obvious caveats with this stat. First, Penn State had a robust recruiting class, including a loaded four-player 2027 class, when it fired Franklin, so there were more players to de-commit than many of the other programs that are on this list. Also, Penn State fired Franklin much earlier in the year, which gave those recruits more time to seek other opportunities before the early signing period arrived. 

To further muddy the waters, some of those commits, especially in the 2027 class, were considering a de-commitment prior to Franklin’s firing. 2027 four-star wide receiver Khalil Taylor decommitted before Franklin was fired, and five-star running back Kemon Spell was indicating that he was going to de-commit in the days leading up to Penn State’s loss to Northwestern, the final of Franklin’s tenure in Happy Valley. 

So, is it the program that is limited or the coach? It’s still hard to say, but it is evident that many of the players in Penn State’s 2026 class were committed to Franklin, not to the Nittany Lions. Florida, LSU, and Auburn, on the other hand, have barely shed anything from their recruiting classes since making a coaching change, and that’s part of why at least two of those jobs are seen as more desirable than the vacancy in Happy Valley. 

It’ll be years before we get a final verdict on who held who back. But right now, as Franklin settles in at Virginia Tech and lures his former commits there with him, while Penn State watches all its top candidates to replace him sign extensions, Franklin seems to be winning the divorce.