Penn State men’s basketball vs Rutgers: breakdown, odds and prediction

The Mike Rhoades-led Nittany Lions have been tumbling over the last two weeks, losing four consecutive games to Indiana, Illinois, Oregon, and Michigan State.

Penn State is 2-5 in conference play this season but has a solid opportunity to break the losing streak against Rutgers at the Bryce Jordan Center on Monday night.

However, to dull the optimism, senior forward Puff Johnson exited Wednesday’s game against Michigan State with an apparent hand injury, and Rhoades provided a pessimistic update for the senior forward.

Johnson will miss Monday's matchup against Rutgers, which is a huge blow for the team. Averaging 10.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.4 steals, Johnson is an integral part of this Nittany Lions team, and hopefully, he can return at some point later in the season.

Ace Baldwin Jr. returned for the Nittany Lions on Wednesday night after missing one game. He was out last Sunday against Oregon due to a back injury, and it seemed like he was playing through discomfort against Michigan State. Nevertheless, Baldwin did not exit the game, playing all 40 minutes in the nail biting loss. 

Rutgers has been near the bottom of the Big Ten standings all season so far, but improved to 3-4 in conference play after head coach Steve Pikell and his two superstar freshmen led the way to consecutive wins at home against UCLA and on the road against Nebraska.

Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, the two superstar freshmen, are each averaging more than 19 points per game this season. They accounted for over 50% of Rutgers’s points in the two wins over UCLA and Nebraska.

Penn State traveled to Rutgers earlier in the season, losing the contest 80-76. How was that game decided, and what can Penn State do to avoid a season sweep? Let’s break it down with some keys to the game for each team:

Rutgers keys to the game: offensive rebounding, attack inside with Harper and Bailey, get Yanic Konan Niederhauser in foul trouble

• Rutgers - 12 offensive rebounds vs PSU
• PSU dead last in Big Ten in allowing offensive rebounds during conference play
• Harper & Bailey combined vs PSU - 39 points, 27 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 steals
• Konan Niederhauser fouled out vs MSU last game, Rutgers needs to attack him as PSU’s backup centers have struggled
• Rutgers must take care of the ball, turned it over 14 times vs PSU

Penn State keys to the game: start strong and don’t get behind, Baldwin needs to step up, get to the line, keep Bailey off the glass

• Rutgers led PSU by 15 at half, nearly blew the lead at the end
• PSU has struggled in first halves all season, need to get a comfortable early lead
• Baldwin shot 3/14 from the field in the first matchup, struggled guarding Harper
• Need him to be efficient while getting to the line, second best free throw shooting in D1 (94.4%)
• Bailey had 15 rebounds vs PSU, 4 offensive
• Konan Niederhauser has to stay on the floor, looked great against MSU
• Have to outhustle and play with full effort for 40 minutes, don’t overlook this team

Penn State vs Rutgers odds and prediction 

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

*Lines subject to change*

Moneyline

• Penn State -295
• Rutgers +235

Spread

• Penn State -6.5 (-120)
• Rutgers +6.5 (-102)

Total

• 156.5 (over -115/under -105)

Prediction

• Penn State 85, Rutgers 80

Penn State should end the four-game losing streak at home. I believe Baldwin and Konan Niederhauser play a great game and score a ton of paint points against Rutgers’s weak interior defense. Rutgers battles hard behind Harper and Bailey, but falls short as the other role players fail to support them late in the game.