Penn State men’s basketball vs Ohio State: breakdown, odds and prediction

Penn State was an eight-and-a-half point underdog in Ann Arbor on Monday night.

Entering the last two minutes of the game, Penn State held a 72-67 lead. After the ensuing possession did not lead to anything, Michigan head coach Dusty May called a timeout, and the timeout, the Wolverines went on a 9-0 run to win 76-72.

It was a collapse by the Nittany Lions, one that would have been a quad-one victory, putting them back on the bubble. Instead, Penn State remains far outside the bubble, needing nearly every game left on its schedule to have a realistic chance at making the NCAA tournament.

Penn State returns to Rec Hall for the second consecutive season, something head coach Mike Rhoades wants to make an annual tradition. Last season’s game against Illinois at Rec Hall provided one of the most insane comebacks you’ll ever see in the sport of college basketball.

This year, the Rec Hall game comes against Ohio State.

Ohio State enters Thursday’s game with a 4-5 conference record. The Buckeyes are coming off an impressive win in West Lafayette against Purdue and a home victory over Iowa. 

The Buckeyes have had a very bipolar season, with victories as good as defeating No.12 ranked Kentucky and four losses at home already this season.

Junior point guard Bruce Thornton spearheads Ohio State, averaging 17 points per game on 52.4% shooting from the floor. He provides the Buckeyes with an all-around game, and an ability to score at all three levels. 

How does Penn State match up with Ohio State? What do they have to do to regain momentum in conference play? Let’s break down some factors:

Dictate the pace

• PSU 2nd fastest team by tempo in conference play, OSU 14th
• OSU offense dead last in turnover percentage, PSU defense 3rd 
• OSU will get sloppy with the ball, PSU must force them into low-percentage passes

Get to the free throw line

• PSU is shooting 78.1% on FTs in conference play, 4th in Big Ten
• OSU has the 4th highest foul rate in conference play, and 21.5% of their points given up are from free throws (also 4th in Big Ten)

Yanic Konan Niederhauser NEEDS to stay on the floor

• Konan Niederhauser has been in foul trouble in PSU’s last two games
• @ Iowa: 13 points in 14 minutes
• @ Michigan: 9 points in 19 minutes
• OSU center Sean Stewart averages 3.2 fouls on 18.2 minutes per game
• Konan Niederhauser will get plenty of free throws if he stays out of foul trouble
• Backup centers Kachi Nzeh and Miles Goodman have struggled, Konan Niederhauser is the most valuable player on the team right now

Penn State vs Ohio State odds and prediction 

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

*Lines subject to change*

Moneyline

• Penn State -140
• Ohio State +116

Spread

• Penn State -2.5 (-110)
• Ohio State +2.5 (-110)

Total

• 148.5 (over -115/under -105)

Prediction

• Penn State 77, Ohio State 70

Penn State’s defense played much better against Michigan, and I believe that trend continues. Ohio State’s offense is super streaky, and Penn State’s ability to create turnovers will showcase the Buckeyes’ biggest weakness. Penn State needs to get to the line a lot to win this game and I believe they do. Close game, Penn State pulls away at the end for the raucous Rec Hall crowd!