Penn State men’s basketball vs Northwestern: breakdown, odds and prediction

Penn State has yet to crack the top 25 of the AP poll this season, but they would certainly be a lot closer with a win against Northwestern on Thursday night.

The Nittany Lions enter this game at 11-2, 1-1 in conference play. Contrary to previous years, the metrics and analytics are high on the program. In the NET rankings, Penn State ranks 35th, 9th among Big Ten teams. Penn State is 38th in KenPom, 41st in EvanMiya, and 44th in Torvik, the three most popular analytical ranking websites. 

The past two games against Drexel and Penn were not stout performances, but the Nittany Lions left both games with double-digit victories. 

Yanic Konan-Niderhauser flourished in the two games, averaging 18.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in the contests. Penn State will need him to keep up his superb play to defeat Northwestern on Thursday.

Northwestern enters Thursday with a 10-3 record, 1-1 in conference. They lost on a miracle Iowa buzzer-beater on the road, then defeated Illinois at home in an overtime thriller. Their other losses were to Butler at a neutral site, and to Dayton on the road.

The Wildcats look better than expected so far, as junior forward Nick Martinelli has a case as the most improved college basketball player, averaging over 20 points per game. Martinelli and senior forward Brooks Barnhizer are accounting for over half of Northwestern's points per game this season.

What will decide this game? How do these teams match up against each other? Let’s break it down.

Northwestern takes care of the ball

• Northwestern allows the 5th least steals per game to opponents and force the 3rd least turnovers per game in the country
• They turned it over just 4 times against Illinois
• Penn State defense is 9th in steals per game
• Penn State forced 24 turnovers against Purdue, 14 against Rutgers
• Another “unstoppable force meets immovable object” matchup for Penn State

Penn State needs to push the pace

• Penn State plays at the 19th fastest tempo, Northwestern plays at the 321st fastest tempo, per KenPom
• Iowa did this vs. Northwestern, did not work too well, but they won, and got Northwestern to commit 12 turnovers
• Penn State has a superior defense to Iowa, they can force Northwestern into poor passes and sloppy play throughout the game better than the Hawkeyes did.

Yanic Konan-Niederhauser against Northwestern’s interior scorers

• This will be a recurring factor all season
• 56.1% of Northwestern’s points come from 2’s, top 30 in the country
• Martenilli and Barnhizer attempt a lot of shots inside the paint
• Konan-Niederhauser struggled against Purdue and Rutgers, needs to play a big role against Northwestern on both ends
• Needs to stay out of foul trouble, if he does Penn State should look to keep rolling Puff Johnson at the small-ball center

Penn State vs Northwestern odds and prediction 

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

*Lines subject to change*

Moneyline

• Penn State -245
• Purdue +198

Spread

• Penn State -5.5 (-120)
• Purdue +5.5 (-102)

Total

• 143.5 (over -115/under -105)

Prediction

• Penn State 73, Northwestern 68