Penn State men’s basketball has had a season to forget through its first 11 conference games, sitting at 3-8 in conference play and 13-9 overall. At Rec Hall on Thursday, Penn State lost to Ohio State 83-64. The team shot 32% from three, 55% from the free throw line, and just nabbed one steal against the Buckeyes.
That’s Mike Rhoades’s mantra, forcing turnovers with a hyper-aggressive defense. Just being able to get one steal against a team that is 16th in turnover percentage among the 18 Big Ten teams in conference play is abysmal.
Let’s flip the script against Minnesota, a team that just suffered a quad-three loss to Washington at home on Saturday. The Golden Gophers are also 3-8 in conference play and have an 11-11 overall record.
Minnesota is led by Dawson Garcia, one of the best players in the Big Ten. He’s averaging 20.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game on 51% shooting from the field. He’s been a do-it-all player for Minnesota over the past three seasons, after transferring from North Carolina.
The Golden Gophers are thin outside of Garcia, yet they swept the season series against Penn State last year, showing that there are no easy games in the Big Ten.
What are the keys to the game for Penn State? How can Minnesota take advantage of a slumping Penn State squad? Let’s break it down:
Minnesota’s keys to the game: play at your pace, attack inside early and often, give the ball to Dawson Garcia and everyone get out of his way
- Minnesota plays at the 8th slowest pace in all of Division I
- Have to get an early lead, Penn State starts slow
- 3rd in Big Ten in percent of points scored from two-pointers
- Dawson Garcia has scored 18+ points in 20 of 22 games
- Garcia: 51.2% from field, rest of team: 42.7% from field
Penn State’s keys to the game: erase the last seven games from your minds, show a sense of urgency, make your threes and free throws, make Minnesota earn points at the free throw line
- Need a better start than previous games
- Penn State plays at the second-fastest tempo in conference play
- Garcia 22 points vs PSU at BJC last year, make someone else beat you
- Shot 16/29 from FT line vs OSU, can’t happen vs Minnesota
- Minnesota shoots 64% from FT line, bottom 12 in Division I
- Golden Gophers are allowing Big Ten opponents to 36.4% on threes, Penn State will get plenty of open looks from beyond the arc
Penn State vs Minnesota odds and prediction
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
*Lines subject to change*
Moneyline
- Penn State -400
- Minnesota +310
Spread
- Penn State -8.5 (-110)
- Ohio State +8.5 (-110)
Total
- 142.5 (over -110/under -110)
Prediction
- Penn State 72, Minnesota 68
I believe Minnesota makes this game ugly, dictating a slow pace throughout the game. I don’t see Penn State starting off hot, and Minnesota likely will take an early lead. However, a second-half surge from Penn State wins them a close game. Shots will fall from three, and I predict a big game from Zach Hicks on Tuesday.