After a heartbreaking one-point loss to Oregon in Happy Valley, Penn State travels to East Lansing, Michigan for another tough test on Wednesday evening against one of the Big Ten’s best, Michigan State.
The Nittany Lions now have lost three consecutive games to Indiana, Illinois, and Oregon, playing itself out of the bubble. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi does not have Penn State on the bubble anymore, as the Nittany Lions are now outside the first eight teams left out of his latest projected bracket.
Penn State did not have Ace Baldwin Jr. active against Oregon, as he left the Illinois game last week with a back injury. However, the starting backcourt of Freddie Dilione V and Nick Kern Jr. carried the team in his absence, combining for 40 of Penn State’s 81 points versus Oregon.
The offense showed up against Oregon, but the defense really struggled. Oregon shot 66% on two-point attempts, well above their 54% average on the season.
On the bright side, Penn State rebounded way better than usual, only allowing six Oregon offensive rebounds, while grabbing 13 of its own. Penn State must do the same to have any chance against Michigan State on Wednesday.
Michigan State enters this contest with a 14-2 overall record and an undefeated 5-0 conference record. They are on a nine game winning streak, and seek double digits against the struggling Nittany Lions.
An unorthodox team, to say the least, Michigan State only has one player, Jaden Akins, averaging double-digit points this season. However, Tom Izzo has a different philosophy and playstyle with this season’s roster.
How does Michigan State play? What are the keys to the game for each team? Let’s analyze further.
Michigan State’s keys to the game: keep playing tough defense, attack inside, stay active on the glass
- Spartans have the No. 11 defense in the country and No. 1 defense in Big Ten play, per KenPom
- Nittany Lions have KenPom’s 13th (among 18 Big Ten teams) best offense in conference play, rank 14th and 13th in three-point and two-point percentage, respectively.
- Spartans shoot 56.6% from two in conference play, Nittany Lions allow 56.2% on two-pointers, huge advantage Michigan State
- The biggest mismatch: Spartans rank first in conference in offensive rebound percentage, Nittany Lions rank dead last in allowing them
- Michigan State wins if they do everything they have specialized in this season
Penn State’s keys to the game: get to the free throw line while keeping Michigan State away from it, push the pace in transition, be OK getting beat from three
- Nittany Lions shoot 78.6% from the free throw line and 23.1% (second most) of their points come from the line in conference play
- Spartans shoot 84.5% from the free throw line in Big Ten play, ranks first in the conference
- Scoring in the half-court will be difficult, Dilione and Kern must attack the rim in transition
- Spartans shoot 28.9% from three on the season, by far its biggest weakness
- Penn State should play soft perimeter defense, let Michigan State beat them from beyond the arc
Penn State vs Michigan State odds and prediction
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
*Lines subject to change*
Moneyline
- Michigan State -720
- Penn State +490
Spread
- Michigan State -11.5 (-106)
- Penn State +11.5 (-114)
Total
- 154.5 (over -106/under -114)
Prediction
- Michigan State 85, Penn State 72
Michigan State will be able to play their brand of hard nosed, gritty basketball on Penn State. This is another poor matchup for Penn State, and the mismatches are evident on both sides of the floor.