Succeeding a letdown loss against Indiana on Sunday, Penn State travels to Champaign, Illinois to battle the Fighting Illini. They look to shake off their most erratic shooting performance of the season to date.
Penn State remains in the middle of the Big Ten standings at 2-2, with wins against Northwestern & Purdue, and losses to Indiana & Rutgers. The Nittany Lion's NET ranking tumbled down to 47th, and they sit at 44th in KenPom. They rank 11th in the conference in both rankings, which puts them right on the projected bubble.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Penn State as the second to last team in the tournament for his latest bracket projection. There are still plenty of games left for Penn State to work themselves into a more comfortable position heading towards Selection Sunday, yet they also could work themselves out of the bubble, and this matchup on Wednesday night is a frightening one.
Illinois sits at 3-1 in Big Ten play, defeating Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin with the sole loss coming to Northwestern. They currently rank 8th in NET, good for first in the conference, and 12th in KenPom, good for second in the conference.
The Brad Underwood-led squad is potent on both ends of the ball, ranking top 20 in the country in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metric.
How does this high-powered Illinois team stack up with Penn State? What factors stick out? Can Penn State find a way to come out with an upset win? Let’s break it down.
Get your defensive rebounds
- A key reason why Indiana beat Penn State was the Hoosiers’s ability to grab offensive rebounds
- Illinois’s offense ranks top 30 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage
- Penn State must be locked in at all times on the defensive end of the ball, cannot allow Illinois to crash the glass and create second chances for this top-20 offense
- Illinois has a massive rebounding advantage on both ends, not good for Penn State
How Penn State will score with Illinois’s stout defense
- The 3/24 3PT performance from Penn State hopefully was an anomaly, but don’t expect the majority of their points to come from beyond the arc
- Illinois runs teams off the three-point line, and forces them toward the basket, as opponents score 55% of their total points against them inside the three-point line
- Penn State ranks 18th in the country in 2PT percentage, Illinois’s defense ranks 10th in the country in opposing 2PT percentage
Turnover margin
- This goes in line with the last point, but this is a key on how Penn State must score on Wednesday night
- Penn State’s defense ranks 10th in the country in turnover percentage, and 18th in steal percentage
- The Nittany Lions have to create offense from their defense, capitalizing on transition opportunities for points
- They will struggle against Illinois in their half court offense, have to push the pace off steals and defensive rebounds
- Illinois ranks bottom 30 among Division I teams in creating turnovers and bottom 20 in creating steals
- Penn State must easily win the turnover battle in order to win this game
Penn State at Illinois odds and prediction
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
*Lines subject to change*
Moneyline
- Illinois -580
- Penn State +420
Spread
- Illinois -10.5 (-105)
- Penn State +10.5 (-115)
Total
- 164.5 (over -108/under -112)
Prediction
- Illinois 84, Penn State 74