How does Matt Campbell recruit when his hidden gems don’t stay hidden anymore? That’s the biggest question with his move from Iowa State to Penn State.
He was never pulling in elite talent to Ames, but those underrecruited three-stars he found in the Midwest tended to stay under the radar after fielding an offer from the Cyclones. But now, when Penn State starts sniffing around, a few more programs and industry experts start to take notice.
That’s not the case with 2028 four-star edge rusher Asa Burch. The 6-foot-5, 225-pound Warren, Ohio product and newly minted Notre Dame commit has long been highly touted, ranking No. 85 in the country in the 247Sports Composite rankings.
Burch was never a hidden gem, but he was the type of player Penn State needs to land if it’s not going to build the whole program out of those overlooked three-stars. Eventually, Campbell needs to start winning some of these high-profile, big-money recruiting contests, but as was the case for James Franklin, it seems Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame have his number.
Matt Campbell can’t start believing he can out-develop everyone
It’s a vitally important skill for a coach and a program to be able to identify overlooked talent and turn some little-known three-star into a productive player at the Power 4 level. It’s how teams with smaller budgets can catch the biggest spenders and how the teams spending the most can maintain an edge on the margins over their peers. But it can’t be your only trick.
Campbell and his staff aren’t the only ones scouring the depths of recruiting rankings for players that fit their system, and now that they’re no longer running a 3-3-5 defense, their system looks a lot more like everyone else's.
Even what slim talent identification advantage he may have over others can get closed off quickly when a Penn State offer starts to draw attention, and in the transfer portal era, there’s no guarantee that your developmental project sticks around long enough for you to reap the benefits.
Eventually, to meet the lofty expectations that are set for him at Penn State, Campbell must start to trade punches with the likes of Notre Dame and Michigan, which the Irish also beat out for Burch, not Boston College, Syracuse, and Rutgers, which this staff has positioned as their primary competition in flip season ahead of the early signing period for the 2027 class.
2028 has to be a foundational class for Penn State
That probably wasn’t going to happen in the 2027 class. Campbell didn’t have the relationships built up with highly touted players because he wasn’t previously swimming in those waters. But unless he’s suddenly going to pivot to overhauling his talent-deficient roster with heavy portal activity, the 2028 class better have some blue-chip talent.
Missing out on Burch, who is just one of many targets, doesn’t mean that’s impossible. Over a year out from the 2028 signing period, there’s no guarantee that Burch stays in Notre Dame’s class, or even stays in the Composite top 100. But seeing another Penn State recruiting loss to Notre Dame begs the question: How does Matt Campbell recruit when his hidden gems don’t stay hidden anymore? And will Campbell ever be able to attract enough blue-chip talent to level up at Penn State?
So far, he has two four-stars in the 2028 class, both from PA. That’s a great start. But what matters is having a great finish, and after losing a few flips in 2027, that class is limping to the finish line. With Burch off the board and more movement to come, 2028 may start to take a few more hits than expected this early in the cycle.
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