Across his first 11 seasons in Happy Valley, James Franklin has only delivered one Big Ten title and has an abysmal 1-10 record against Ohio State. Yet, with Franklin’s incredible roster retention from last season’s College Football Playoff Semifinalist and a few shrewd transfer portal additions, the Nittany Lions have vaulted themselves into national title contention and the “elite tier” of the Big Ten.
Since Penn State’s 2016 conference title, only Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon have claimed the Big Ten crown. In an 18-team conference with unbalanced schedules, crazy things can happen, but it would be a major surprise if this year’s conference champion doesn’t come from this group of teams.
For a full look at the Big Ten, check out the post-spring transfer portal Big Ten Football power rankings.
1. Penn State
Regardless of James Franklin’s big-game woes, Penn State should enter the 2025 season as the favorites to win the conference. Ohio State lost 14 players to the NFL draft after its national championship season, including its quarterback, and Oregon will also be breaking in a new starting QB.
Meanwhile, Penn State kept its nucleus almost completely intact around senior quarterback Drew Allar. Allar won’t have Tyler Warren to throw to anymore, but he will have a massively upgraded group of wide receivers led by last year’s ACC receptions leader, Trebor Pena, who Franklin plucked away from Syracuse in the spring portal window.
Defensively, the Nittany Lions enter the year without Abdul Carter, but going from Tom Allen to Jim Knowles is the type of defensive coordinator upgrade that could offset any talent drain. Penn State is fully stocked for a run at the Big Ten title, and this roster is good enough to win the whole thing. Is the head coach? We’ll see.
Ryan Day didn’t just lose 14 players to the NFL Draft, he also lost both his coordinators, Knowles and Chip Kelly. It won’t be easy to recreate the postseason success his program had, rolling through the CFP last year, but Day can still hang his hat on the superstar talent that is still in Columbus.
With wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, Ohio State enters the season with the best offensive and best defensive players in the country. That will make life easier for first-year starting quarterback Julian Sayin and a questionable defensive line. If any program can replace as much talent as Day lost, it’s Ohio State, but there are too many question marks surrounding the defending national champs to consider them the favorites in the Big Ten.
In Year 1 of major realignment, Oregon stormed into the Big Ten, rolled through the regular season with an undefeated record, and laid claim to the Big Ten crown with a win over Penn State in Indianapolis. However, Lanning did that leaning on a veteran group he built through the transfer portal. 2025 could be the first season that the fourth-year head coach has to fully trust his elite, but inexperienced 2023 and 2024 recruiting classes to lead the way.
His quarterback, though, will still be a transfer. After starting as a freshman at UCLA, Dante Moore transferred to Oregon to sit behind Dillon Gabriel and redshirt for a year. Now he’ll be expected to lead the Ducks back to a Big Ten title. Both Sayin and Moore have major pressure on their shoulders entering this season, and that’s an advantage for Penn State.