Penn State in top five most likely to win 2026 CFP per ESPN Power Index

The Nittany Lions have high hopes and expectations for the 2025-26 season, and ESPN's Football Power Index has them as a likely contender to win the national championship.
Penn State football running back Kaytron Allen runs with the ball during the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium.
Penn State football running back Kaytron Allen runs with the ball during the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

It's not a shock that Penn State football is one of the top contenders to win the 2026 College Football Playoff.

The Nittany Lions, between the player roster and coaching staff, have one of the most (if not the most) experienced teams heading into the 2025-26 season and expectations are very high. Penn State hasn't won the Big Ten since 2016 and it made its first CFP appearance last year, and everything is falling almost perfectly into head coach James Franklin's lap to bring at least one of those championships home to Happy Valley.

The Nittany Lions are the favorite to the win their conference above Ohio State, according to cleveland.com's preseason Big Ten rankings. Per the ESPN Football Power Index, it has the Buckeyes in that top spot with a 40.3 percent chance of winning and Penn State a 25.1 percent chance.

Ohio State is just one team, though, and the Nittany Lions need to prove themselves against more than just the reigning national champions.

Colin Cowherd believes Penn State and Texas will be the last two teams standing, and he has a lot of faith that Franklin's team will win the national championship. ESPN's Power Index, though, isn't feeding into all the buzz surrounding the Nittany Lions (at least not enough to put them at the very top). The Longhorns have that No. 1 spot on the rankings followed by another pair of SEC teams, Georgia and Alabama, before reaching the Big Ten: Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon.

1. Texas

2. Georgia

3. Alabama

4. Ohio State

5. Penn State

6. Oregon

7. Clemson

8. Notre Dame

9. Miami

10. Texas A&M

Top five isn't bad for the Nittany Lions — and the more they keep landing in No. 1 spots before the season, the greater chance they have at disappointing. There would be a big reaction difference if they lost a conference regular season game while placed first on the power rankings compared to where they are now. No 5 makes big regular wins seasons more impactful and hopeful rather than meeting an expectation.

Oregon (Week 5), Ohio State (Week 10), and Indiana (Week 11) are Penn State's biggest regular season games and some of the biggest Big Ten games overall. These will be the greatest indicators as to the Nittany Lions' playoff run and how they'll match up against top ranked teams.

Penn State opens the 2025-26 season at home against Nevada. Kickoff on Aug. 30 is set for 3 p.m. and the game can be watched on ESPN.