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Penn State hockey's fate is sealed before NCAA Tournament even starts

The Nittany Lions have an unfortunate regional to face and a Frozen Four appearance seems like a long shot.
Jan 31, 2026; State College, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defenseman Carter Schade (2) and Michigan State Spartans forward Shane Vansaghi (23) battle for the puck during the second period at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images
Jan 31, 2026; State College, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defenseman Carter Schade (2) and Michigan State Spartans forward Shane Vansaghi (23) battle for the puck during the second period at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

No. 10/9 Penn State men's hockey secured its spot in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, but its path to the Frozen Four is anything but simple.

The Nittany Lions lost their spark in the second half of the season, specifically in the final stretch of the regular season when they needed it most. Even alternate captain Reese Laubach admitted the team checked out and got complacent. In the Big Ten Tournament, No. 1/1 Michigan got the best of them in a 5-2 semifinal, proving they can't compete with the best of the best.

Now, Penn State's tournament path is the ultimate test. It starts in its regional, which was solidified in the NCAA Selection Show on Sunday.

Penn State bound to face Big Ten foe Michigan in NCAA Regional after round one

Due to league rules, teams in the same conference cannot face each other in the first round of the national tournament. That means the blue and white avoid the Wolverines, No. 3/3 Michigan State, and No. 12/12 Wisconsin in round one.

With how the selection show turned out, the Nittany Lions have at least a fair matchup in the first round. They face No. 6/8 Minnesota Duluth, which is ranked just above them in NPI rankings. The Bulldogs lost their NCHC Championship game to No. 4/5 Denver, but secured their spot in the NCAA Tournament regardless. They are 23-14-1 overall and 11-12-1 in their conference on the season. Penn State is 21-13-2 overall and 12-10-2 in the Big Ten.

With comparable conference in terms of competitiveness in 2025-26, the Nittany Lions don't have an easy matchup in round one, but they have a fair one.

If they survive round one, they might as well pack their bags.

Michigan can wreck any team in its regional. In round one, the Wolverines face No. 20/23 Bentley who only made it into the tournament due to an automatic conference championship bid. Unless a massive upset happens in that first round, Michigan has an easy path to the Frozen Four.

After the Falcons, the Wolverines face either Minnesota Duluth or Penn State. Both of these are tougher competition compared to Bentley. However, as long as the Bulldogs or Nittany Lions don't have a lucky night, it's Michigan's regional to win.

As for Penn State, it needs more than a lucky puck bounce for a second consecutive Frozen Four appearance. Unfortunately for head coach Guy Gadowsky's team, individual player success won't beat the Wolverines and it might not even beat Minnesota Duluth.

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