Penn State on bubble watch as NCAA Tournament selection looms

After a historic upset over then-No. 1 and two-time reigning national champion Northwestern to close out the 2026 regular season, the Penn State Nittany Lions dropped their first-round contest in the Big Ten Tournament to the Iowa Hawkeyes this past Wednesday.

Penn State entered the tournament, their first since 2023, as the No. 3 seed, having gone 6-2 in Big Ten play during the regular season. The second of those two losses also came against Iowa just 10 days prior and had been their only loss of any kind since mid-September. They went 8-1 (6-1 in Big Ten play) in October, tops in the conference.

Iowa didn't play their best game of the season offensively or defensively, winning only 2-1 despite outshooting the Nittany Lions 14-2. But that in itself was the problem for Penn State. Just five days after their upset win over Northwestern, inarguably the biggest win of the season for any individual program, there were times when Penn State's offense looked out of sync, specifically in the second half.

And just as we saw in the rain against Maryland back in September, they simply could not get anything going in the adverse weather conditions.

Iowa didn't need to convert on all their opportunities because they generated so many; five of their shots were off the mark, seven were saved by Aby Deverka, and they still did enough to win because of how well they limited Penn State's chances. They didn't even need to save a single Penn State shot; Joji Purdy's first-quarter goal was the only shot on goal the Nittany Lions were able to take all game.

The loss marked Penn State's first blown lead of the season, after their loss to Iowa just 10 days prior marked their first shutout loss of the season.

The defeat ultimately left Penn State's NCAA Tournament fate in the hands of the selection committee, which is set to announce the 18-team tournament bracket on Sunday night.

While the Penn Monto/NFHCA Division I National Coaches Poll is not even considered by the committee in their selection process, it can still serve as a half-decent indicator as to where teams stack up nationally. It is worth noting that Penn State entered the week ranked No. 12, their highest rank in the 41 most recent editions of the poll dating back to 2023.

The 18 tournament spots, of course, don't necessarily go to the top 18 teams, due to the 10 automatic bids given to the conference tournament champions of the America East, ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, CAA, Ivy League, MAC, NEC, and Patriot League.

Penn State is effectively relegated to the battle for the eight at-large bids with every other team that did not win their conference tournament title. And it's an extremely tight battle.

Here's a list of the 10 champs who are locked into the bracket and therefore not competing with Penn State for one of those eight spots.

2026 NCAA field hockey conference tournament champions

How does the NCAA select at-large tournament teams?

Record, strength of schedule, and eligibility and availability of student-athletes are all considered when selecting the remaining eight teams, along with a number of other factors.

Historically, the committee has relied heavily on RPI (25% winning percentage, 50% opponents’ average winning percentage, 25% opponents’ opponents’ average winning percentage) to place the at-large teams, even though there are other factors the committee can consider if need be. RPI is basically a strength of schedule metric that measures how well you've actually played against your schedule.

The other possible variables include head-to-head competition, results against common opponents, late-season performance in the last seven games, including conference tournament play, significant wins and losses, and KPI.

Can anybody please define "significant"? Anyway...

What are Penn State's chances?

Based strictly on RPI, Penn State is right on the bubble. According to Field Hockey Corner, they are tied with North Carolina at 0.603, although UNC has the edge for the No. 11 spot using additional decimals. But despite being in the top 12, they are far from a total lock, simply because of how many teams from below them (seven) have locked up auto bids.

Specifically, Old Dominion's Big East Championship Game win over Connecticut could come back to bite them, since Old Dominion would have finished well below them in RPI (No. 19). Instead, Old Dominion clinched the Big East's auto bid, and UConn remained higher in RPI (No. 4), effectively creating a situation where the Big East will get an extra team into the bracket.

Miami's MAC Championship Game win over Massachusetts could also come back to bite them, since Miami would have finished well below them in RPI (No. 20). Instead, Miami clinched the MAC's auto bid, and UMass remained higher than Miami in RPI. That being said, they did dip to No. 14, below Penn State, since their strength of schedule is considerably lower than all other bubble teams.

Notable teams that did not win their conference tournaments include Maryland (No. 2), Harvard (No. 3), UConn (No. 4), Princeton (No. 5), Iowa (No. 7), Duke (No. 8), Wake Forest (No. 10), North Carolina (T-No. 11), Penn State (T-No. 11), UMass (No. 14), and Liberty (No. 15)

I would confidently say that Maryland, Harvard, UConn, Princeton, Duke, and Iowa are 100% locks at this point. And specifically, with regard to this article, there's no realistic argument for Penn State being in ahead of any of them.

That leaves us with the real battle at the bubble.

Just two spots remain open.

UMass is a two-loss team but played a relatively weak schedule, and that has to be considered when you line them up with teams from the Big Ten and ACC. That being said, they did beat both Harvard and Liberty.

Wake Forest and Penn State, two six-loss teams, have almost identical resumes, even aside from being separated by just 0.002 RPI points. Both lost to Iowa, Maryland, and Virginia, and both beat Michigan. Both also lost their first-round conference tournament games to a team that beat them during the regular season. Both have four ranked wins and all of their losses came against ranked opponents. Penn State does have the slight edge on strength of schedule.

As for North Carolina, there's just a gut feeling that it wouldn't be all that surprising to see them get in, even as a seven-loss team. They do have a "significant" loss against Michigan, which failed to qualify for the Big Ten Tournament, whereas Penn State beat Michigan, a team that went 1-7 in Big Ten play with their only win coming against 0-8 Michigan State. But Penn State lost to Princeton, a team UNC beat. Both teams lost to both Virginia and Iowa.

Head-to-head, however, Liberty did beat UNC, and they're in that mix. Wake Forest did as well.

In addition to effectively taking away an at-large bid that will now go to UConn, Old Dominion beating UConn also boosted UNC's RPI, since UNC played Old Dominion (and lost) earlier this season. Prior to that game, Penn State was ahead.

Our underlying concern all year has been that the ACC is viewed as being a stronger and deeper conference than it really is; that's certainly how it has looked in the poll, which, again, is technically irrelevant when it comes to the actual tournament selection process.

There are basically a lot of good-but-not-great teams, and the fact that they all beat up on one another throughout the season may or may not have disproportionately boosted the overall strength of the conference in the eyes of the committee. There are a lot of "quality wins" and not many "bad losses". That being said, the Big Ten did beat the ACC in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge 9-3. UNC specifically went 0-2.

What Penn State has going for them, above anybody else, is the fact that they beat Northwestern, which ended up crushing Maryland in Sunday's Big Ten Championship Game. No other bubble team has a win as impressive as that one.

And the fact that Penn State's win came in the regular season finale should be another boost, given the added weight the committee is allowed to place on late-season performance. Every single team on "bubble watch" lost a conference tournament game, including Penn State, but Penn State's performance late in the regular season was a cut above the rest.

The problem is that it's hard to just compare any two teams when so many teams haven't played one another; there's no one-size-fits-all when it comes to head-to-head or common opponents.

And it's one of the main reasons why RPI seems to be a consistent selection starting point for comparison. It measures all teams based on the exact same criteria, even if it does come off as a bit lazy to simply go down the list picking teams based on nothing more than a metric that anybody can technically calculate without watching a minute of competition.

All things considered, it looks like it will be a battle between Wake Forest, UNC, and Penn State for two spots. It will be interesting to see how the committee uses RPI and whether or not they will actually take into consideration other relevant factors which should put the Nittany Lions ahead.

The selection show is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. ET on Sunday evening, with live coverage set to be provided by NCAA.com.

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