Penn State decision-makers reportedly unfazed by Matt Rhule’s embarrassing Week 8 loss

When Penn State suddenly moved on from James Franklin, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Nebraska’s Matt Rhule immediately emerged as the top candidates to replace him. Well, in the week since, Cignetti re-upped with the Hoosiers for 8 years and $93 million, and Rhule suffered an embarrassing 24-6 loss to Minnesota, dashing its College Football Playoff hopes. 

Cignetti is off the board for Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft, but Rhule, whom he worked with at Temple, is reportedly still under heavy consideration for the job. On Tuesday, Tyler Donohue from Lions247 shared that Rhule, a Penn State alum, has “sustained support” from multiple Board of Trustees members. 

Matt Rhule is still the favorite to replace James Franklin in Happy Valley

There are serious concerns about Rhule. His last win over a ranked opponent came in 2016 as the head coach of Temple, and though he’s produced 10-win seasons at both Temple and Baylor, there isn’t much proof that he can be the salve to Franklin’s big-game woes. 

That, however, isn’t the only reason to be trepidatious about the potential hire. It’s also the quarterback that Rhule would likely be bringing with him. Like Drew Allar, Dylan Raiola is a former five-star, and like Allar, he’s yet to live up to that alluring potential. 

Raiola has been accurate this year, leading a relatively efficient offense under offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen. However, he can also be the unit’s biggest detriment. Raiola was sacked nine times against Minnesota, and though many of those came courtesy of his right tackle, Gunnar Gottula, sacks are ultimately a quarterback stat. 

By pressure to sack rate, the best measurement of a quarterback’s sack avoidance, Raiola ranks last among 140 FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season at 35.6 percent. Those sacks kill drives, and rarely do quarterbacks change their tendencies in terms of holding onto the ball under pressure. 

If Raiola follows Rhule to Penn State, Nittany Lions fans would essentially be signing up for the Drew Allar experience all over again. His deficiencies are different. Allar was too risk-averse, never pushing the ball downfield or giving his receivers a chance to make a play. Raiola takes on too much risk as a playmaker in the backfield. The result, though, is the same: a former five-star QB who won’t be able to get his team over the top. 

With Cignetti off the board and other big-time jobs opening across the country, it’s hard to imagine that Penn State can pry Lane Kiffin away from Ole Miss, and the Marcus Freeman fantasy is just that, a fantasy. So Penn State will likely end up with Rhule, only to lose big games with a disappointing high-pedigree quarterback.