For the first time since James Franklin took over the program in 2014, Penn State finished as a top-four team in the country. The cruel irony of that accomplishment is that it came in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff and leaves the Nittany Lions with four games to win for a national championship. First up is the SMU Mustangs, the runner-up from the ACC and the No. 11 seed in the 12-team CFP.
James Franklin has struggled to win big games, but he doesn't get many opportunities against teams that aren’t Ohio State or as a favorite at all. Penn State is a big favorite ahead of the Noon ET kickoff on Saturday at Beaver Stadium, so this is a perfect opportunity for Big Game James to buck the trend.
Penn State vs. Oregon odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- SMU +250
- Penn State -315
Spread
- SMU +8.5 (-110)
- Penn State -8.5 (-110)
Total
- 53.5 (over -110/under -110)
Penn State vs. Oregon prediction
Penn State doesn’t win big games, that is true. However, the Big Ten doesn’t provide the Nittany Lions with many opportunities to beat good, not elite teams. At 11-2, Penn State’s two losses are two Oregon and Ohio State, who are both in the CFP, and its best win is against Illinois, which finished at No. 20 with a 9-3 record. SMU is right in Franklin’s sweet spot, a good team, but a beatable one who he should take care of business against.
SMU also finished 11-2 with a loss in its conference championship game, but the Mustangs’ losses aren’t quite as impressive as Penn State’s falling to BYU and Clemson. Rhett Lashlee’s team didn’t record a single win over a ranked opponent and got pushed around early by Clemson’s blue-chip athletes. The Nittany Lions have the talent to overwhelm SMU in the trenches and slow down running back Brashard Smith, but that still leaves Kevin Jennings.
Jennings didn’t begin the season as the starter at SMU, but once he replaced Preston Stone, his athleticism allowed him to thrive behind a shaky offensive line. Jennings is a big play-hunter who loves to create outside of structure and could threaten Tom Allen’s man-heavy scheme with the secondary turning its back to the quarterback.
After Allen’s disaster-class against Oregon, allowing 45 points, I expect SMU to score, but with Drew Allar leading Andy Kotelnicki’s offense, Penn State is built to win a shootout. SMU’s run defense has been elite, but those numbers are inflated by a lack of physical rushing offenses on its schedule. Nicholas Singelton and Kaytron Allen should have success, even without Beau Pribula’s gadget package giving the run game a boost, and Allar is playing at a high enough level to overcome Penn State’s lack of talent at wide receiver.
SMU’s offense is electric but relies heavily on its 12.7% explosive pass rate. On a down-to-down basis, Penn State is far superior, ranking second in the country in offensive success rate with the Mustangs at No. 53. I’ll back the more consistent unit to win a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Penn State 35 SMU 28