No. 4 Penn State vs. Purdue final odds and prediction for Week 12

As the rest of the college football world takes losses, Penn State climbs back up the College Football Playoff rankings. After beating Washington 35-6 in Week 11, the Nittany Lions jumped from No. 6 to No. 4 in this week’s CFP rankings with Miami and Georgia both taking losses on Saturday. 

The Big Ten has three of the top four teams in the country and four of the top five, but no other ranked team, so with a loss to Ohio State already on its resume, James Franklin’s team might not be able to rebound from another loss. Franklin’s team may need to go 11-1 to make the first CFP appearance of the head coach’s 11-year tenure in Happy Valley, and the next step is at Purdue in Week 12. 

The Nittany Lions are big favorites over the Boilermakers for their 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff in West Lafayette. Let’s take a look at the odds. 

Penn State vs. Purdue odds, spread, and total

These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline

• Penn State -10000
• Purdue +2400

Spread

• Penn State -28.5 (-114)
• Purdue +28.5 (-106)

Total

• 50.5 (over -122/under +100)

Penn State vs. Purdue prediction

Purdue is coming off a 45-0 loss to Ohio State in Columbus in Week 11. The Boilermakers managed just 206 total yards of offense and were led by running back Devin Mockobee who ran 13 times for 73 yards. The Purdue offense is 120th in the country in yards per game and 72nd in yards per play. The Boilermakers will have a very tough time scoring and with their slow pace of play, will hope to avoid a true blowout at the hands of Penn State. 

If you’re an outmatched team, your best chance of winning is often to play a low-possession game and hope for some randomness to go your way in a small sample size. That’s what Purdue head coach Ryan Walters has been trying to do all year. The former Illinois defensive coordinator has his offense running just 57.8 plays per game, the fewest in the country. The Boilermakers are operating at a slower pace than Iowa and Navy, which is hard to do. 

Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, with his bizarre formations and consistent use of pre-snap motion, also plays at a relatively slow pace, 97th in the country in plays per game. By all efficiency metrics, Penn State should move the ball and score at will in this game, but the Nittany Lions just won’t have enough chances to put up 50+ on the road Saturday. This game will be lopsided, but Walters’ entire plan is to minimize the damage of these blowouts, so I’ll predict a 41-3 Penn State win.