No. 4 Penn State vs. Minnesota final odds and prediction for Week 13

After the Penn State Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State, and still didn’t fall very far in the national rankings, it was clear that all the College Football Playoff committee expects from James Franklin’s team is to win out, finish 11-1, and that will be good enough to make the inaugural 12-team CFP. Well, with last week’s 49-10 win over Purdue in West Lafayette, the Nittany Lions are just two wins away from that 11-1 finish as they head to Minneapolis to face the 6-4 Minnesota Golden Gophers. 

PJ Fleck’s team got on a roll in Big Ten play with four straight wins over USC, UCLA, Maryland, and Illinois to get to 6-3, and looked like potentially the fifth-best team in the conference behind Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana, before a Week 11 loss to Rutgers on the road. Already bowl-eligible, the Gophers are looking to play spoiler as a home underdog this week. 

Let’s dive into the odds for this Big Ten matchup. 

Penn State vs. Minnesota odds, spread, and total

These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Moneyline

• Penn State -490
• Minnesota +365

Spread

• Penn State -11.5 (-115)
• Minnesota +11.5 (-105)

Total

• 45.5 (over -108/under -112)

Penn State vs. Minnesota prediction

While Minnesota is narrowly above .500 on the season, the Gophers have been a good bet against the spread with a 7-2-1 ATS record. They had covered in five consecutive games before losing last time out as a three-point favorite on the road. A big reason for that isn’t just Minnesota’s QB upgrade over last season with Max Brosmer, but the defense playing exceptionally well. 

Minnesota is 12th in the country in total defense, 20th in yards per play (4.8), and 19th against the pass. By expected points added (EPA), the Gophers are 16th against the pass, which will be crucial against a Penn State passing attack that while not prolific through the air, is fourth in the country in EPA/pass at 0.34. With that strength-on-strength matchup through the air and Penn State’s lack of dynamic playmakers at wide receiver, this game will be determined in the trenches and on crucial downs. 

Minnesota’s defense is 44th in EPA/rush and 120th in the country in 3rd/4th down success rate at 49%. Penn State can run the ball well as Nicholas Singleton continues to get healthier after spending most of the year banged up, and on those money downs, Drew Allar has been a star. Penn State’s run game keeps the Nittany Lions ahead of the chains, with the second shortest average 3rd down distance in the country and Allar keeps the chains moving with the 4th best 3rd/4th down success rate. 

Penn State should be able to sustain long drives, and the Nittany Lion's defense will stifle Fleck’s offensive attack that relies heavily on Brosmer to bail out a lackluster ground game. Minnesota has been forced to shuffle its offensive line around some, and Philip Daniels has not played particularly well at right tackle. He allowed four pressures against Rutgers and has allowed six in just 103 pass-blocking snaps this year. With Dani Dennis-Sutton healthy, Penn State can either have Abdul Carter attract a double-team on the other side and have Dennis-Sutton take over the game or have Carter terrorize Daniels all night.

Franklin’s team is favored by 11.5, and I expect them to win by two touchdowns or more. Give me Penn State 31 Minnesota 13.