As Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft’s search for James Franklin’s replacement dragged on late into this week, well beyond when every other major head coaching vacancy had been filled, it seemed that Kraft faced a conundrum. Give in to the push from the players, boosters, and fanbase, and remove the interim tag from Terry Smith, or stick to his guns, bring in an outside hire, and lose Smith, either to Franklin’s Virginia Tech staff or a head coaching job at UConn or Memphis.
Instead, Kraft had his cake and ate it too. Shortly after the Friday night announcement that Matt Campbell was leaving Iowa State to become the next head coach of the Nittany Lions, came another piece of important news: Terry Smith would be staying on Campbell’s staff.
For all the potentially awkward power dynamics that could be created in the locker room after Smith’s emotional tenure as the interim head coach at his alma mater, keeping Smith on Campbell’s staff opens the door for Penn State to contend for the College Football Playoff right away.
Penn State has a possible path to the 2026 College Football Playoff
Though Penn State fired a head coach after a trip to the CFP semifinals, Kraft is seemingly willing to be patient with his newest hire. Campbell received an eight-year contract, which will allow him to build sustainably, focusing on internal development as he did in Ames, rather than riding the roller coaster of roster construction through the transfer portal. Still, if he gets the portal right in Year 1, Campbell could be set up to succeed immediately.
The 2025 Penn State roster was built to compete for a national title, and though it fell woefully short, the veterans in their final year of eligibility won’t get another chance at redemption. Turnover would have been inevitable had Franklin not been fired, and the coaching turnover will only exacerbate it. Smith’s retention may help to mitigate the damage.
Many of the leaders on Penn State’s roster, including junior linebacker Tony Rojas, have been openly advocating for Smith to get the full-time job. The assumption has been that if he didn’t, many of those veterans would opt for the transfer portal instead. Yet, if they’re loyal to Smith, and Smith believes in Campbell enough to stay, why wouldn’t they?
Keeping players like Rojas, true freshman edge rusher Chaz Coleman, and other key pieces of the defense in Happy Valley is Part 1 of the case for Penn State to be a CFP contender in 2026; Part 2 is the schedule.
Penn State's 2026 schedule is one of the Big Ten's easiest
Penn State’s three non-conference games in 2026 are almost as easy as they were in 2025, with Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo opening the year. Then, more importantly, in Big Ten play, Penn State avoids Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana.
In 2026, Penn State’s home five Big Ten home games will be against Minnesota, Purdue, Rutgers, USC, and Wisconsin. Its road games are Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern, and Washington.
Regardless of how well Campbell fares in the transfer portal and how much talent Smith helps to keep on the roster, that’s a winnable schedule, and in the 12-team era, 10-2 could have the Nittany Lions right back in the at-large conversation.
It’s unfair to expect a CFP appearance in Year 1 of the Campbell era, but the path exists.