Penn State finally found the game-changing wide receiver it was searching for in Koby Howard, but after a tantalizing start to his redshirt freshman season, he’s set to miss “an extended period,” as head coach Matt Campbell revealed on Wednesday.
The undisclosed injury isn’t expected to keep Howard out for the year, but with Penn State’s soft Big Ten schedule, it appears likely that he’ll miss the marquee matchups with USC and Michigan that are likely to determine the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten title hopes and at-large College Football Playoff bid. Campbell did not provide a timeline, but it's hard to imagine he'll be back in a month.
Howard did take to social media to speculate on his return, posting an image of Darth Vader recovering in a bacta tank, harkening back to Abdul Carter's post from a few years ago, with the date 10/17/2026, the day Penn State plays Michigan.
Koby Howard is following in Abdul Carter’s footstep… pic.twitter.com/H4LvRS6ahS
— Daniel Gallen (@danieljtgallen) September 23, 2026
Penn State is currently +410 to make the CFB (according to the FanDuel Sportsbook), which is an implied probability of 19.6%. ESPN’s FPI has Penn State at 37.2% to make the CFP, which is down from 38.5% on Monday, before the Howard injury news.
Weeks 6 and 7 are essentially Penn State’s season
Penn State has yet to face a Power Conference opponent, so the No. 13 team in the country is one of the bigger unknowns. It’s entirely possible, despite entering Week 4 as a 10.5-point favorite over Wisconsin, that the Nittany Lions are more of a middle-of-the-road Big Ten team than a CFP contender, so matchups with the Badgers, Northwestern, Minnesota, and Maryland will be a challenge.
In that case, the CFP ship has already sailed, but if Penn State is for real, then the season appears as though it will come down to Week 6 when the Nittany Lions host USC for the White Out at Beaver Stadium, and Week 7 when they head to the Big House to take on Michigan.
USC and Michigan are the only two ranked teams on Penn State’s schedule after three weeks. Washington, which Penn State will visit in Week 10, was ranked in the preseason, but has looked so pedestrian through a 3-0 start against non-Power Conference foes that it has fallen out of the Top 25. The Huskies may bounce back, but right now, they seem to be a tier below.
So, while a soft schedule gives Penn State a phenomenal chance of a 10-win season, it also means that the Nittany Lions could miss a CFP at-large bid with a 10-2 record. Especially if they finish without a ranked win. Essentially, while nothing is definitive this early, if Penn State goes 0-2 in Weeks 6 and 7, it will miss the playoff.
Campbell needs to find a way to beat one of those two teams, and now it seems likely that he’ll have to do it without his No. 1 wide receiver. That was a difficult proposition before Howard’s injury, but it looks even tougher now.
USC and Michigan are not without fault
The good news is that USC and Michigan are by no means world beaters. Lincoln Riley’s Trojans have historically struggled when traveling to the East Coast and did so once again in Week 3, allowing Rutgers, probably the worst Power Four team in the country, to hang around for 60 minutes.
Aside from just travel troubles, USC’s defense has struggled to tackle, another historical trend for Riley’s program that has seemingly carried over to 2026. So far in 2026, though, Howard is one of Penn State’s leaders in missed tackles forced with 5 and ranks No. 15 in the country in yards after the catch per reception, averaging 11.8.
Michigan’s problems lie on the other side of the ball, and in what will likely be a low-scoring game, an explosive-play machine like Howard looms even larger than normal. His absence won’t make either of those games unwinnable for the Nittany Lions, but certainly more difficult.
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