Josh Pate believes that the Nittany Lions have a schedule that could see them compete for a spot in the CFP 12-team bracket.
Matt Campbell is going to have to hit the ground running in year one, and it seems like the Big Ten is offering him plenty of runway with a slate that doesn't include any teams from the conference that made the playoffs last season.
"There's no Ohio State, there's no Oregon, there's no Indiana. The out-of-conference is a complete joke," Pate said. "There's no back-to-back road games here. They get USC at home."
Josh Pate believes Penn State could make noise in 2026
It's not unusual for a program to try to lighten up the schedule for a new coach in his first year, especially where there is as much roster turnover as we're seeing in college football. That came with a non-conference slate that has Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. But the Big Ten schedule? That was some pure luck and for a program that wants to be a perennial playoff team, it's better to be lucky than good in Campbell's first year. Indiana got a similar break in 2024 when the Hoosiers only faced one ranked team al season (Ohio State). And we see what that experience did for Curt Cignetti's program. Why can't the same thing happen to Campbell in Happy Valley?
"Listen to November...at Washington is not easy, I will grant you that. But Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland...those are the final five games they play," Pate added. "So I like Penn State's odds to sneak around the playoff bubble this year, even though it's year one. The ceiling of that team is probably well below that of national title caliber, but it may be a product of scheduling in year one."
Penn State should open the season 3-0 and if the Lions can win three of their four conference games (Wisconsin, Northwestern, USC and Michigan), then the playoffs will be very much in the picture. The trip to Seattle is the only time Penn State will have to travel through time zones this season. If the Lions are 7-2 after their first nine games, the closing stretch of Minnesota, Rutgers and Maryland puts a 10-win season on the table.