Penn State football is +750 on FanDuel to win the 2026 College Football Playoff championship, and the Nittany Lions have a team from players to coaches that's as sure as you can get in college football. Especially in the upcoming season, they have one of the most experienced rosters in the country.
For ESPN's Bill Connelly, Penn State's right there to win the national title, but he has two "ifs" that need to happen in order to secure it.
ESPN's Bill Connelly says one of Penn State's "ifs" is Drew Allar kicking into a higher gear
"[Drew] Allar's stats aren't too far from where they need to be," Connelly wrote. "If he completes one more pass per every 24 or so he throws, if he has a reason to take a few more shots downfield and if he can better beat man coverage — the type you see a lot from the CFP-level teams — Penn State will have everything it needs for a big run."
Allar finished 17th in total quarterback ratings in 2024-25 with a 77.5 QBR, but statistically speaking, that's not high enough for a national title run. Connelly compared his performance to the average of the top four 2024 quarterbacks.
The Nittany Lion had a 66.5 percent completion rate compared to the top four's 70.7 percent, 12.7 average yards per completion to the four's 13.1, 8.7 percent of passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield compared to the top four's 12.4 percent, and 7.2 average yards per dropback against man coverage to the four's 8.7.
This "if" for Penn State is Allar taking another leap in his game to get into the stat-range of title winners. It's not impossible. The quarterback had a jump in his game from sophomore to junior year, boosting his completion rate by nearly seven percent for about 700 more yards.
ESPN's Bill Connelly says Penn State's receivers need to beat man coverage
Allar can't do it alone. With the additions of Trebor Pena, Devonte Ross, and Kyron Hudson to the wide receiver room, the quarterback should have the help he needs in the passing game.
As Connelly noted, Allar had zero completions to wide receivers in the Orange Bowl that the Nittany Lions lost to Notre Dame. Penn State had the returning players for running backs and tight ends (even in Tyler Warren's absence), so getting three solid wideouts is huge to complete its offense.
Pena had 84 receptions for 941 yards at Syracuse in 2024, Ross had 76 receptions for 1,043 yards at Troy, and Hudson had 38 receptions for 462 yards at USC. Liam Clifford, Kaden Saunders, and Tyseer Denmark need to take huge leaps on the perimeter to catch up to these transfers if they want to see valuable game time.
Allar needs a few wide receivers that can beat man coverage and get the job done. He has Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Luke Reynolds to fall back on in the passing game, but all three position groups to be involved in the offense.