Grading Drew Allar’s unsatisfying performance in Penn State’s Week 13 win over Minnesota

Once Penn State debuted in the first 12-team College Football Playoff rankings at No. 4 with a loss to Ohio State, the assignment was crystal clear for James Franklin’s Nittany Lions; win-out and you’re in. Well, it wasn’t pretty in Week 13 at Minnesota, but Penn State won, and with one game left on the schedule, that should be enough. 

However, while a 26-25 victory of Minnesota might be good enough to get into the dance, Penn State and junior quarterback Drew Allar will need to play better to advance past a potential first-round home game at Beaver Stadium. 

Penn State’s offense was one of the most explosive in the country in its first few games under new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, but those big plays on the ground have dried up as Nicholas Singleton has dealt with injuries. Through the air, the deep shots still exist, but with an underwhelming wide receiver group, they’re rare. 

If you don’t have wide receivers who can separate down the sidelines, run away from a cornerback in man coverage on a deep crosser, or just go over the top to win a 50/50 ball, which Penn State does not, you need to scheme open your explosive passes, and when you do, your quarterback best not miss. 

The Nittany Lions are 22nd percentile in explosive rush rate on the season, but above average in explosive pass rate at 10.2%. Against Minnesota, Penn State managed a 52% success rate (92nd percentile this season) but had just a 6% explosive play rate and only one explosive pass. That was Allar’s first-half 45-yard touchdown bomb to a wide-open Omari Evans. 

Allar doesn’t exactly deserve high marks for hitting a wide-open receiver, but he does deserve a bit of a demerit for missing Evans on a nearly identical play later in the game. It came with 7:22 remaining in the third quarter with Penn State down 22-16 on a drive that ended in a punt one play later when Allar missed Warren on third-and-9. 

There was pressure on the throw around Allar’s legs which clearly affected the throw. However, if Allar is going to be considered one of the best quarterbacks in college football and a potential first-round NFL draft pick either this spring or next, those are the throws he needs to hit. 

Ultimately, Penn State won the game by going for it on fourth down three times on the final drive to salt that clock away, once with a fake punt. However, if Allar had hit that throw to Evans, Franklin may not have needed to be so aggressive with a one-point lead in the fourth. 

It’s unfair to distill one game down to one throw, and that’s not what I intend to do. Allar was generally accurate in this game, made some very tough plays with his legs, including a first-half touchdown run, and overcame real adversity with multiple special teams disasters. But it was far from perfect and the miss to Evans illustrates the razor’s edge this offense operates on because of its lack of skill talent, and Allar is the only player that can elevate some of that pressure. 

Penn State can beat Minnesota like this. The College Football Playoff will be a different story, and it won’t have a happy ending for Nittany Lions fans if Allar doesn’t take advantage of every opportunity.