Grading Drew Allar’s pristine performance in Penn State’s dominant win over Purdue

Penn State’s path to the College Football Playoff is pretty simple. The Nittany Lions, currently ranked fourth in the country by the CFP committee, just need to win out to finish 11-1. Drew Allar brought them a step closer in Week 12 with a near-perfect performance in a 49-10 win over the Purdue Boilermakers. 

If James Franklin’s team is going to slip up, it likely wasn’t going to be in West Lafayette against the one-win Boilermakers, and Allar and the Penn State offense made sure of that. The Nittany Lions overwhelmed Purdue on Saturday afternoon and backup QB Beau Pribula finished off the win, taking over in the third quarter, but let’s continue to evaluate Penn State’s former five-star junior as he continues to rise up NFL draft boards in what could be his final season in Happy Valley. 

In Week 12, Allar posted the best single-game completion percentage of any Penn State quarterback this century, but that’s not particularly hard to do with an average depth of target of 3.7 yards. Over 60% of Allar's attempts were behind the line of scrimmage, and he attempted just four passes over 10 yards downfield but completed all four for 105 yards and two touchdowns. 

For the season, Allar’s ADOT is 8.7, and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki only has him attempting screens on 11.5% of his dropbacks, but that jumped to 31.8% against Purdue. There was a clear directive to get the ball out quickly in this matchup, and that paid off with 208 yards after the catch in the game, between Allar and Pribula. Outside of Tyler Warren, Nicholas Singleton, and Kaytron Allen, Penn State doesn’t have elite skill talent, but even the team’s lackluster wide receiver group completely outclassed Purdue’s secondary. 

In such a lopsided matchup, sometimes it’s hard to get a read on what’s actually real about an impressive statistical performance. However, there were two meaningful takeaways from this game from a quarterback evaluation standpoint. 

Short throw precision

Allar completed 11 of his 12 attempts behind the line of scrimmage and two of his three passes between zero and nine yards downfield. That’s not the story. Those passes are easy for any quarterback to complete, but there’s a difference between a completion and setting up your receiver to make a play with the ball. Offenses can succeed off efficient underneath throws if its quarterback can put it on a receiver quickly and in stride so they can get their eyes downfield and keep their momentum. Allar did a great job of being, not just accurate, but precise, and that’s one of the reasons Penn State generated so much yac. 

Red zone success

The biggest problem with Penn State’s offense lately, and especially against the better defenses it’s faced, is finishing drives in the red zone. Many times, to punch the ball into the end zone, Kotelnicki has taken the ball out of Allar’s hands and put it in Pribula’s or Warren’s to get an 11th man in the run game. Those problems have something to do with Allar’s relative lack of mobility, but more than that, it’s about a group of receivers that can’t win quickly in a tight area, or win a 50/50 ball at the catch-point. 

On Saturday, Allar threw two red zone touchdowns, one to Allen off play-action with a well-designed play and a perfectly thrown ball, and the other to Warren on a fade from the slot. Allar put it on Warren’s back shoulder and allowed him to adjust and make a play. As a sophomore, Allar rarely trusted his receivers to make those types of plays, as a junior, he’s trusted more, despite it occasionally costing him, though it usually doesn’t when his future All-American tight end is the target. 

Plus: Escapability

It’s also important to mention that Allar made one of the most fun plays of his career with his legs. 

For the season, he has been sacked on just 12% of his pressured dropbacks, 27th best among 155 quarterbacks in the country with at least 100 dropbacks. He’ll never be a runner, but a low sack rate QB is a dream for an offensive coordinator, especially if that player can still produce explosive plays, and Penn State has an explosive pass rate of 11% (80th percentile).