ESPN’s FPI metric is still inexplicably high on Penn State heading into Ohio State matchup

Penn State expected to be 7-0 or 6-1 heading into a top 10 matchup with Ohio State in Week 10. Instead, the Nittany Lions are 3-4, have yet to beat a Power 4 opponent, and are searching for a new head coach. Still, ESPN’s FPI metric has a lot of respect for one of the worst power conference teams in the country. 

Despite its 0-4 start to conference play, Penn State ranks No. 21 in FPI, one spot behind Iowa, and ahead of LSU, Washington, and an undefeated Georgia Tech team, which slots in at No. 25. 

Penn State slotted at No. 21 by FPI

Now, unlike the AP Poll, FPI is a power index, not a ranking system with voters. It’s a regression model that uses preseason expectations as its initial baseline, so the thought that Penn State would compete for a national championship is partially buoying the rating nine weeks into the year. 

Still, it’s not just preseason expectations. By this point in the season, the metrics are more heavily weighted towards in-season performance, so it begs the question: Is Penn State playing better than its record would indicate? The answer is probably yes. 

FPI still projects Penn State win just 5.6-6.4 games this season, but that’s because it has already lost games it should have won and has Ohio State and Indiana on deck in Week 10 and 11. As for the games the Nittany Lions should have won, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+, Penn State had a postgame win expectancy of 74.3 percent against Northwestern, the loss that ended the James Franklin era, and by net success rate, the Nittany Lions were only narrowly bested by Iowa in another one-point loss. 

Those statsheet victories are meaningless for Penn State in the big picture. They lost those games, and that’s the reason James Franklin is no longer the head coach in Happy Valley. Still, it’s remarkable how much the ratings favor the Nittany Lions despite their putrid record. By Connelly’s SP+, Penn State is the 17th-best team in the country after Week 9. 

Those ratings are likely to begin falling shortly, however, because without Drew Allar on the field, Penn State has little chance to hang with the Buckeyes or the Hoosiers, and both programs will be happy to kick the Nittany Lions while they’re down.