FanDuel released its early regular season win odds for the 2026 college football season. For Penn State football and head coach Matt Campbell in year one, they're grouped in with elite Big Ten talent.
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The Nittany Lions' have an over-under of 9.5 wins with the over at +110 and under at -134. Indiana (10.5), Ohio State (9.5), Oregon (10.5), Michigan (8.5), and USC (8.5) also have a high line.
It's beneficial for Penn State that it avoids meeting the Hoosiers, Buckeyes, and Ducks in 2026, which is likely a big reason why it sits at over/under 9.5 wins right now.
FanDuel win total odds put Penn State in company with Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and Oregon
Due to that, the Nittany Lions aren't facing threatening competition to that level. They meet the Trojans, Wolverines, and Washington, who are considered their three toughest opponents. Michigan stands out as the biggest competition for Penn State, and is repeatedly said to be the game circles on Campbell's calendar as a season-defining matchup.
Given the 9.5 win total line, those three games is seemingly what throws the Nittany Lions over or keeps them under. They also face Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland, rounding out their Big Ten slate. Penn State opens the season with games against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo. The non-conference slate should be an automatic 3-0 start to the season.
It's helpful for these early odds that the Nittany Lions' Big Ten conference slate isn't severe, but early record predictions haven't favored them as a double-digit win team in Campbell's first year.
It's a realistic take, saying 2026 is a foundation-building year for the new head coach in Happy Valley rather than a College Football Playoff-bound season. However, it's exciting to think about what Campbell was handed on a silver platter for his first season in terms of Penn State's schedule. A CFP appearance is not a complete pipedream, and neither is a 10-2 or 11-1 season. The Nittany Lions still need to manage expectations, though, and not get too ahead of themselves.