Coming into the season, it appeared that you could feel good about three teams in the Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. Oregon has proven that theory to be incorrect, but beyond that group, the disappointments for the conference have been just as big.
The next group of presumed contenders, who were viewed as the league’s best chance of landing additional at-large bids into the College Football Playoff, were USC, Michigan, Washington, and Penn State. USC is ranked but disappointing. Washington is a full-blown disaster. Many people would say Michigan and Penn State are somewhere in the middle. Vegas would seemingly disagree.
On Tuesday, ahead of Penn State’s trip to Ann Arbor, the Nittany Lions are a 6.5-point underdog to Michigan. That’s far from insurmountable; 6.5-point underdogs win games outright all the time, but it’s a sign that these two situations are not viewed similarly, even with both unranked and entering on losing streaks.
Penn State vs. Michigan odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Penn State +180
- Michigan -220
Spread
- Penn State +6.5 (-115)
- Michigan -6.5 (-105)
Total
- 42.5 (over -110/under -110)
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Penn State simply can’t match Michigan’s talent
The juice is in the direction of the Nittany Lions, so the early-week indications are not showing that this line will creep above the full touchdown, but if you factor home field in as three points for the home team, Penn State is an implied 3.5-point underdog to Michigan on a neutral. Again, that’s not a sign that Penn State will be supremely overmatched, but it does signal a different view of these similarly disappointing teams.
By Bill Connelly's SP+, Michigan is No. 22 with a 13.1 rating. Penn State is No. 38 with a 9.6 rating. However, by FPI, Penn State is soundly ahead of Michigan, and Saragin has the two teams back-to-back at No. 36 and No. 37. The analytic models seem to have these two programs in similar situations, but Vegas seemingly has much more faith in Michigan; it seems pretty clear why.
Michigan has back-to-back losses to Iowa and Minnesota, falling to 4-2 and out of the AP Top 25. If not for a timing mistake against Western Michigan, the Wolverines would be 3-3. Kyle Whittingham is facing questions about his starting quarterback, Bryce Underwood, who hasn’t found his footing under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck.
The offensive struggles are similar to Penn State’s, which lacks playmaking talent around its struggling QB and has offensive line issues to boot. But Penn State’s defense has been much worse than Michigan’s, and Michigan soundly outplayed Iowa in its loss, while Penn State hasn’t outplayed a team since Buffalo in Week 3.
Michigan has a few holes on its roster. Penn State has a wholesale talent deficiency in its program. Vegas recognizes it, and it could make for a long Saturday in Week 7, even against a team that lost to Minnesota last time out.
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