Penn State is riding high into Week 11, back over .500 for the first time since a Week 6 loss to USC dropped it to 3-3, and on a two-game winning streak in the Big Ten. Plus, with Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland the only teams standing in the way of an 8-4 finish, the vibes could get even better.
However, Penn State came a few plays away from an utter meltdown in its 28-25 win over Washington, and is still just 2-4 in conference play. This might be rounding into an above-average Penn State team, but that’s exactly the territory that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers typically occupy in the Big Ten, perfectly above average.
To say Penn State should be favored at home in Week 11 is completely understandable. Especially after Vegas doubted Matt Campbell’s team on the road in Seattle, leading to the program’s first outright win as an underdog since 2021. However, It’s a bit hard to say the Nittany Lions are nearly 10 points better than Minnesota. But early in the week, that’s about how Vegas sees it.
Minnesota vs. Penn State odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Minnesota +280
- Penn State -350
Spread
- Minnesota +9.5 (-112)
- Penn State -9.5 (-110)
Total
- 43.5 (over -105/under -115)
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Penn State’s two-game win streak has Vegas starting to believe
Minnesota is far from a Big Ten powerhouse. Still, at 5-4, the Golden Gophers have a rather respectable resume. Fleck’s group has wins over Washington, Michigan, and Iowa, and two of its three Big Ten losses are to the top two teams in the league, Indiana and UCLA, which handled the Golden Gophers 34-20 in Week 10.
A loss to Purdue certainly hurts Minnesota’s stock, but that was sandwiched between Michigan and Iowa, and the early-season loss to Mississippi State came against a healthy Kamario Taylor. Minnesota isn’t a great team, but is it really seven points worse than Penn State on a neutral field? I guess we’ll find out.
The offense is what’s holding Minnesota back, according to the power raters. SP+ has Minnesota at No. 68 overall and No. 102 in offense. FPI has the Golden Gophers at No. 62 overall. Penn State is No. 38 in SP+ and No. 31 in FPI, so there’s quite a substantial gap. By SP+, Penn State has a 9.3 rating, and Minnesota has a 1.3, so there’s your nine-point differential.
Still, considering how the Penn State season has gone and how much the Nittany Lions struggled in the second half against Washington before ultimately salting the game away with a seven-minute clinching drive, it’s staggering to see them getting this much love. Granted, they were around double-digit favorites over Purdue most of the week before handling the Boilermakers 31-17. Maybe they’ll do the same against Minnesota.
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