James Franklin needed a quarterback who could win big games, who could slay top 10 opponents, would could lead his program to championships. That’s why he pushed all his chips into the middle of the table for Drew Allar as a five-star in the 2022 recruiting class, and then doubled down this offseason with major transfer portal additions to the offense and one of the more impressive retentions in the country, keeping many of his best veterans in Happy Valley.
Allar has proven to be a bad bet, with another loss to a top-tier contender ending on a back-breaking interception. The senior quarterback was inaccurate and indecisive for the first three quarters before storming back to send the game to overtime, only to lose it in heartbreaking fashion. However, despite the 6-foot-5 passers’ many shortcomings, he’s far from the only issue on the Penn State offense, and the other major problem is an even bigger surprise.
Allar had shown flashes, but had yet to string together a fully consistent season over his first two years as the Nittany Lion’s starter. It’s believable that it is just never going to click for him. Nicholas Singleton clicked from Day 1 in Happy Valley, rushing for over 1,000 yards as a true freshman in 2022, but suddenly, he’s one of the more inefficient running backs in the country.
Nicholas Singleton is not the same player in 2025
Through the first four games of the season, the 6-foot, 224-pound senior, who decided to forgo the NFL Draft and return to Penn State with Kaytron Allen this season, has rushed for just 200 yards on 52 attempts (3.8 ypc). Against Oregon, the first Power Confernece opponent of the season, his 11 carries became just 21 yards with a long of six and -0.06 EPA/carry.
Singleton has always been the lightning to Allen’s thunder in the Penn State backfield, but this season, he’s yet to bust off a long run and doesn’t appear to have the same explosiveness as past seasons.
His long carry is just 16 yards, coming against FIU in Week 2, and that accounts for his only “breakaway run” as charted by PFF, accounting for just eight percent of his attempts. A season ago, carrying the ball 174 times across 115 games, Singleton ran for 1,106 yards and 12 touchdowns, and 40.5 percent of that yardage came on his 18 “breakaway runs.” That percentage ranked 23rd in the FBS among the 81 running backs with at least 150 carries.
With that explosive element to his game, Singleton was a much more efficient back than Allen, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 0.18 EPA/carry with a 49 percent success rate. Allen checked in at 4.7 ypc, -0.02 EPA/carry, and 44 percent rushing success rate. This season, the production and efficiency have flipped, and on Saturday night, so did the division of labor, with Allen taking 19 carries to Singleton’s 16.
As Singleton has matured, he’s added more of a physical element to his game. This was best exemplified by his touchdown performance in the first round of the College Football Playoff against SMU when he trucked a defender into the end zone, then screamed in James Franklin’s face, “I’m a violent m***** f*****.”
Even that aspect of his game is lacking thus far. Where he averaged 3.54 yards after contact per carry last season, he is at just 2.33 so far this year. His yards per contact number on Saturday could shine a light on the root of the problem, though.
Against Oregon, all 21 of Singleton’s rushing yards came after contact, as have 121 of his 200 rushing yards this season. Penn State returned four of its five starters along the offensive line from last season, and slid Anthony Donkoh inside from right tackle to right guard with Nolan Rucci, who started all four postseason games at right tackle after Donkoh went down with a knee injury, staying in the lineup.
Yet, that group got pushed around by Oregon, allowing pressure on 45.2 percent of Allar’s dropbacks despite a 2.77 average time to throw for the game, and struggled to open running lanes for Singleton and Allen. Despite facing the easiest non-conference schedule of any Power 4 team in the country to start the season, Penn State ranks just 22nd in rushing success rate and 53rd by yards per carry, though the Nittany Lions are 15th by EPA/carry, a more illustrative metric.
So, is the issue Singleton or is it the Penn State run game at large? Franklin may not, but I’d lean more towards Singleton, not just because of the numbers but because of the eye test. He doesn’t look like the same player who has three 1,000 scrimmage yard seasons in a row and could end the year as the Nittany Lions’ all-time leading rusher. He doesn’t look like the best running back in the country or the player that Franklin so desperately wanted back to pair with Allen and Allar in the backfield.
It’s clear that the quarterback hasn’t taken the next step in his development, so the run game will be even more important to the success of Penn State’s offense this season, and a return to the College Football Playoff. If one half of what was supposed to be the most talented backfield duo in the country no longer belongs in that conversation, that’s almost as big a problem as Allar’s inconsistency.