Expectations can make or break a team, and Penn State football knows that very well. With head coach Matt Campbell about to start his first season leading the Nittany Lions, managing expectations is crucial.
It's easy to get lost in the fact that Campbell has a familiar coaching staff and a familiar roster headlined by senior quarterback Rocco Becht. Penn State has a significantly easier 2026 schedule, especially compared to 2025, so increasing the expectations for this squad can quickly get out of hand.
When Campbell was hired back in December, athletic director Pat Kraft made it known that he was not expecting the Nittany Lions to get back into national title contention in one year. The former Iowa State head coach signed an eight-year contract after all, so he has at least two seasons to get Penn State back to where it wants to be.
What does that mean for 2026, though? You can't base the expectations for this year's team on the catastrophe that happened in 2025 or how the country thought the Nittany Lions would perform last preseason.
In a perfect world, Matt Campbell takes Penn State to the College Football Playoff
Campbell technically has the tools to make a CFP-worthy run, no matter what round Penn State gets knocked out in. Michigan, USC, and Washington are the biggest competitors the Nittany Lions face in 2026, and all four of those teams — Penn State included — are believed to be on the same tier in the Big Ten.
It's an overused point by now, but it's still a valid one: not facing Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon is a massive advantage for Campbell. He can truly gauge where his team is based on how the Nittany Lions perform against the Wolverines, Trojans, and Huskies. It's as fair of a schedule as Campbell could get.
As said before, it's easy to get lost in the "what could be" scenarios and imagine Penn State on the quest for a national title come CFP time. This shouldn't be the expectation, though. Campbell doesn't have to get his team into the playoffs. A CFP appearance is, rather, the ceiling.
The Nittany Lions must go at least 9-3 in Year 1 with Matt Campbell
It's no secret that Campbell has to do better than 6-6 in the regular season, especially with the schedule Penn State has. In 2025, though, that record was something the blue and white fought for at the end of the season.
Winning six games in 2026 is something the Nittany Lions should easily get done.
Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo shouldn't cause any trouble and neither should Wisconsin or Northwestern. That's five wins off the bat, realistically.
The Nittany Lions have to beat at least one team from their most competitive trio of opponents. Michigan is the toughest, but they play USC at Beaver Stadium the week before. This is a test point for Campbell to compare how well his team does against the Trojans is great preparation for the Wolverines.
Their bye week also comes at a perfect time. Assessing how they performed versus both of those teams should give them juice for the final stretch of the season: Purdue, Washington, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland. That's four wins at least.
Campbell can afford one blip against a weaker Big Ten opponent (as long as it's a close and well-played game). There should also be some grace to give him two losses against that trio (Michigan, USC, and Washington). That doesn't mean Penn State gets blown out by them. That's not the kind of loss Campbell can afford.
Yes, two losses in that second Big Ten tier doesn't sound amazing, but it's year one for Campbell. Remember that this is his baseline; this is what he and this Penn State team are capable of accomplishing at least. It's a completely achievable goal without drowning the Nittany Lions in high expectations.
They should also win their non-playoff bowl game, but that will also come down to who they play. This season is about how well Campbell coaches and how well the team plays against equally-talented opponents, how much Penn State can dominate against weaker opponents, and how it handles and bounces back from losses.
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